Pennsylvania Election Results Expected Around the 7th
Exit Polls and Early Counts Unreliable
US Media: "A Time That Requires Patience"
[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] "Do not be fooled by the exit poll results."
On the 2nd (local time), U.S. election experts warned that the results of this year's U.S. presidential election cannot be prematurely judged based on exit polls. Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters who have finished voting and have been considered an important basis for predicting election trends immediately after the election ends. However, this year, due to the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a record 97.93 million people participated in early voting. Since this record number of early voters was not reflected in the exit polls, the public opinion trend cannot be assessed solely by exit polls. Moreover, it is known that voters with a Democratic Party support tendency participated relatively more in early voting, which could cause a statistical optical illusion depending on which votes are counted first.
Similarly, the initial vote count results have also become unreliable in this year's presidential election. If mail-in ballots are counted first, the Democratic support appears stronger, but if in-person votes on election day are counted first, Republican support appears stronger. Since the counting methods vary by region, it is difficult to gauge the overall voter sentiment based solely on the initial count.
Typically, in U.S. presidential elections, the winner could be identified on election day or early the next day, but this year, it is difficult to predict how long it will take. This year, the counting will not be completed on election day, and it will be impossible to determine who the presidential winner is. The usual political events, such as the loser conceding to the winner after observing the vote count trend and the winner delivering a victory speech, are unlikely to be expected this year.
The New York Times (NYT) noted that in 22 states in the U.S., mail-in ballots arriving after election day will be counted, so the final presidential election result this year will depend on when these mail-in ballots arrive.
In particular, in Pennsylvania, the most crucial battleground in this election, it is expected that the election results may only be confirmed after the 7th. Pennsylvania has allowed mail-in ballots to be accepted up to three days after election day. If the winner in Pennsylvania becomes the U.S. presidential winner, the election results could be delayed until after the weekend. Of course, if legal battles over the election results ensue, the process could be prolonged even further.
For these reasons, U.S. media are urging voters to be patient. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) stated, "Without exaggeration, the domestic tranquility mentioned in the U.S. Constitution over the coming weeks depends on the patience of voters," and added, "Political leaders must persuade voters to calmly wait until the vote counting is completed."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
