[AKYUNG Poll] Seoul Mayor Support: Minjoo 37.9%, People Power 34.5%... Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon Lead Respectively

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] According to a public opinion survey conducted among Seoul citizens, the response that the Democratic Party candidate should win the by-election in April next year slightly surpassed the preference for the People Power Party candidate within the margin of error. Although the party support rate was more than 10 percentage points higher for the Democratic Party, there was little difference in the question about the desired winning party. This seems to be influenced by the responsibility attributed to the Democratic Party for the by-election and the fact that many conservative voters are included in the non-affiliated group.

In the suitability survey for ruling party candidates, Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun received the most responses, while former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon was the most favored among opposition candidates.

Regarding measures to stabilize real estate prices in Seoul, the most common response was that expanding private housing supply through redevelopment and reconstruction is appropriate. Most agreed with the government's policy to realize the official land price, but there was a strong opinion that tax increases should be limited to owners of high-priced homes.

According to a public opinion survey conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on the 1st and 2nd of this month targeting 1,000 Seoul citizens aged 18 and over (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), the response to the question "Which party's candidate do you want to be elected?" showed 37.9% for the Democratic Party and 34.5% for the People Power Party. Third parties and independents accounted for 11.0% and 5.1%, respectively, while 11.5% answered "none/don't know."

This could be an embarrassing point for the Democratic Party. When asked about the party they support or have a favorable view of, the Democratic Party was at 35.2%, and the People Power Party at 22.9%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. However, the gap narrowed to within the margin of error when asked about the desired party in the by-election.

The non-affiliated group, who answered "no party supported or favored," was 20.6%, and it is possible to infer that many of them have conservative tendencies. The responsibility theory that the Democratic Party caused the by-election may have partially influenced this.

The "candidate suitability" survey was conducted to understand which major figures Seoul citizens have in mind, although the outlines are not yet clear.

Among Democratic Party candidates, Minister Park Young-sun (13.6%), Democratic Party lawmaker Park Ju-min (10.3%), Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (7.7%), former Blue House Chief of Staff Lim Jong-seok (6.6%), Democratic Party lawmaker Woo Sang-ho (4.5%), and Democratic Party lawmaker Jung Cheong-rae (3.6%) appeared in that order. However, the "don't know/no response" rate was close to a majority, indicating significant fluidity in public opinion going forward.

Among opposition conservative candidates, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (17.6%), People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (15.9%), former Democratic Party lawmaker Geum Tae-seop (8.4%), People Power Party lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook (6.5%), Seocho District Mayor Cho Eun-hee (6.2%), and former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon (5.1%) appeared in that order. Former Mayor Oh and leader Ahn seem to have advantages in recognition. Former lawmaker Geum, who left the Democratic Party last month, is attracting attention amid the so-called "anti-Moon Jae-in coalition" theory.

Regarding the Democratic Party's nomination for Seoul mayor, 44.6% answered "should not nominate," surpassing the 39.3% who said "should nominate." Over 81% of Democratic Party supporters said "should nominate," but about 90% of People Power Party supporters opposed it, and Justice Party supporters also showed somewhat high opposition.

Regarding President Moon Jae-in, 50.8% responded that they "politically support" him, while 46.2% said they "do not support" him. Political support can more directly assess the impact on elections compared to other job performance evaluations in public opinion surveys.

When asked about measures to stabilize real estate in Seoul, "expanding supply centered on private housing through deregulation of reconstruction and redevelopment" was the highest at 28.0%, followed by "strengthening holding taxes such as property tax and comprehensive real estate tax" at 21.2%. Next were "easing transaction taxes such as capital gains tax and acquisition registration tax" (14.1%), "expanding supply centered on public housing by discovering idle land" (14.0%), and "expanding supply through government-led reconstruction and redevelopment" (10.5%).

Regarding the government's policy to gradually raise the official land price realization rate to 90% by 2030, 69.2% agreed with the realization of official land prices. However, only 19.1% supported tax increases for all homeowners, while 30.4% favored tax increases limited to owners of high-priced homes. Responses that "tax rates should be adjusted to maintain the current tax burden" accounted for 19.7%, and 21.1% opposed the realization of official land prices itself.

This survey was conducted on the 1st and 2nd among men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul, with an overall response rate of 8.07%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS with 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of September 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey outlines, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.