Expert Who Predicted Trump's Win in Last US Election Says "Biden Will Win This Election"

"Stable Polling Lead, Few Undecided Voters"
"Biden Already Secured Majority of Delegates"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Dave Wasserman, editor of the Cook Political Report (CPR) and one of the experts who predicted Donald Trump's victory in the last U.S. presidential election, forecasted that Democratic candidate Joe Biden will win. With far fewer undecided voters than four years ago and a consistently stable lead in polls, the analysis suggests Biden's victory has become certain.

On the 27th (local time), according to local media such as Fox News and NBC News, Wasserman of the bipartisan political analysis organization CPR posted on his Twitter, "Joe Biden looks like he will win next week's election. I want to ring the victory alarm for Biden." Wasserman gained attention after accurately predicting two months before the 2016 election that "Trump would lose the popular vote but had an abnormally high chance of winning the Electoral College vote."

Regarding this prediction, he appeared on NBC and gave three reasons, saying, "Biden has a higher chance of beating Trump than Hillary Clinton did." First, one week before the election, Biden is steadily leading by a larger margin in polls than Clinton did, and there are fewer undecided voters than four years ago, lowering the chance of a 'last-minute comeback.' Second, considering that the congressional elections held alongside the presidential election usually follow the same trend as presidential support, Trump is falling significantly behind in the competition compared to four years ago.

CPR also predicted Biden's victory in a report released on September 29, stating that Biden had already secured a majority of 290 electoral votes, while President Trump had only secured 163 delegates.

In the U.S., the dominant analysis is that Biden remains ahead in this election, but there are also forecasts that consider the possibility of a Trump victory. Karl Rove, former Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush, appeared on Fox News on the 26th and said, "If President Trump wins one of the three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan), he could have a chance to win." He predicted, "Assuming Trump wins all the states he won in the 2016 election except these three, winning just one of these three states would secure more than the 270 delegates needed for victory."

However, Fox News is known as a media outlet favorable to President Trump. Last week, Fox News reported poll results showing Biden leading by 5 percentage points, 5 percentage points, and 12 percentage points respectively in these three states.