[US Election D-7·Interview] "Don't Trust Polls... There Is a Shy Trump"

Interview with Art Estopinion from Trump Camp
"Biden Lead Polls Do Not Reflect Reality"
"Republican Lawyers Preparing for Post-Election Court Lawsuits"
"Trump Continues Fair Trade Pressure... US-China Divorce Not Possible"
"If Re-elected, Will Conclude North Korea Denuclearization Talks"

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] "Do not trust opinion polls. President Trump will be elected again this time."

Art Estopinion (photo), CEO of Estopinion Group, expressed confidence in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 26th (local time) that despite consistently trailing in approval ratings, President Donald Trump will win the November 3 presidential election. Estopinion, a passionate supporter who once served as chief of staff to former House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ross Letinan and joined the Trump campaign in 2016, currently runs a political consulting firm named after himself, Estopinion Group, based in Washington DC.

The main reason he distrusts opinion polls is the so-called "Shy Trump" phenomenon. He argued that "Trump supporters worry about being threatened if they reveal their preferences," and thus opinion polls do not accurately reflect reality.

Although the election race still favors Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, the battleground states remain uncertain. In a poll in Pennsylvania, one of the battleground states, President Trump trails Biden by 5 percentage points. On the same day, both Trump and Biden campaigned in Pennsylvania, a key battleground, to solidify their support bases. Notably, Rasmussen, the only polling agency that correctly predicted Trump's 2016 victory, reported that Trump leads Biden nationally by 1 percentage point with 48% support, drawing attention.

While agreeing that Biden has made gains not only in battleground states but also in traditionally Republican-leaning areas such as Texas and Georgia, he claimed that support for Trump among Latino and Black voters has increased compared to the last election. He judged that Trump will perform well in the decisive battleground states and lay the foundation for victory.

He pointed to tax issues as one of Biden's weaknesses. During the TV debate held on the 22nd, energy policy and tax increase issues were highlighted, raising concerns among voters. At that time, President Trump pressured Biden by saying Biden's "Green New Deal" would destroy existing energy industries. Biden countered by stating he would transition the energy industry.

When asked whether Trump's inadequate response to COVID-19 has reduced support among women and the elderly, Estopinion predicted, "Women will eventually vote for Trump, who emphasizes law and order and safety."

With one week left until the election, he also expressed dissatisfaction with mainstream media, pointing out that they are ignoring the Hunter Biden scandal that the Trump camp has hoped to highlight. He emphasized that conservatives will unite around the Hunter scandal and the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the federal Supreme Court. He said, "There are rumors that the Democrats will try to expand the number of federal Supreme Court justices to 15. This is an extremely sensitive issue." Seemingly aware of such criticism, Biden told reporters that day, "I am not a fan of expanding the number of federal Supreme Court justices."

Estopinion also hinted that the Trump camp is using mail-in voting as an attack point after the election. He introduced that "Republican lawyers are preparing responses to the increased possibility of election fraud due to mail-in voting." He also predicted that it will be impossible to confirm the results on election day and that the counting process will have to be observed for at least several weeks.

He expects that if President Trump is re-elected, foreign policy will maintain its current course. He analyzed that pressure on defense cost-sharing will continue toward allied countries hosting U.S. troops such as South Korea, Germany, and Japan. He also predicted, "President Trump will continue to pressure China," but drew a line on further deterioration by saying, "It will be difficult for the U.S. and Chinese economies, which are mutually interdependent, to completely divorce."

Regarding the relationship with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, he anticipated, "President Trump, who does not use conventional political formulas, can leverage his good relationship with Chairman Kim to conclude denuclearization negotiations mediated by economic support."