[Initial Perspective] The Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for the 'Yoon Seok-yeol Great Expectation Theory'

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] Will Yoon Seok-yeol, the 43rd Prosecutor General, enter the 2022 presidential race? The "Yoon Seok-yeol Great Hope Theory" is spreading within some opposition circles. It is a product born from the longing for the emergence of a "presidential savior." Currently, opposition presidential candidates are engaged in a competition with support rates hovering around 2-3%, akin to an acorn height contest.

In a situation where the presidential outlook is heavily clouded, this is the factor that has made the head of the prosecution in Seocho-dong emerge as a dark horse in the presidential race. Although Prosecutor General Yoon himself has never even mentioned the word "presidential election," the political world’s attention on him stems from curiosity about his potential to disrupt the election. The opposition party is quietly expressing expectations for Yoon, while the ruling party continues a daily barrage of attacks. This is the spectacle of the October political scene.

A senior member of the ruling party even mentioned a new term, "Yoonnattaeng (Yoon Seok-yeol comes out, thank you)," as a way to check him. Interestingly, the more the ruling party tries to check him, the more Yoon’s value rises rather than shrinking. So, could the Yoon Seok-yeol Great Hope Theory grow beyond the interest of Yeouido’s political enthusiasts to become a "typhoon" that overturns the presidential race?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

It is necessary to pay attention to the relationship between the Prosecutor General and politics, as well as the "jinx" of Korean politics surrounding the presidential election. Prosecutor Generals generally have no ties to politics. Former Presidential Chief of Staff Kim Ki-chun is about the only well-known politician who was once a Prosecutor General.

The majority of Prosecutor Generals have tried to keep their distance from politics even after retirement, so as not to burden their junior prosecutors. For Prosecutor General Yoon, who has a special affection for the prosecution, there are many factors to consider if he is to change his life course and enter politics.

It is also worth examining whether Yoon would have a chance of winning if he chooses politics. Since the introduction of the direct presidential election system in 1987, no one has been elected president without having experience as a member of the National Assembly. If popularity alone could make someone president, former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon would not have given up running for president. The scenario of going straight to the presidential election without any experience in public elections is unrealistic.

Yoon was born in Seoul and attended elementary, middle, high school, and university all in Seoul. Since the founding of the Republic of Korea, there has never been a president from Seoul. Considering the political landscape divided between Yeongnam and Honam regions, Seoul natives, who tend to have weaker regional consciousness, are at a disadvantage in securing votes.

Considering the typical political grammar of presidential elections, doubts remain about Yoon’s disruptive power. However, Yoon’s strength lies in being a figure with a story. His image as a public official who speaks out even in front of the living power is an important asset. Those disappointed with established politicians who hesitate and waver may have felt catharsis in Yoon’s bold actions.

If politics were a subject where answers come out according to a fixed formula like mathematics, would the dramatic history of Korean presidential elections have been possible? The reason Yoon, who is often excluded from presidential opinion polls, is treated as a "blue-chip outside the ring" is not unrelated to expectations about his potential.

From Yoon’s personal standpoint, it may be more advantageous neither to confirm nor deny participation in the presidential election. The problem is that his life path could change regardless of his own will. The moment Yoon resigns as Prosecutor General and declares his participation in the presidential election, the opposition’s presidential race is expected to gain momentum. This is why calls for Yoon to participate in the presidential election are inevitable.

Politics is an unknown territory for Yoon. He could become the protagonist of a new presidential drama, or he could end up as just a spark for the election’s excitement. What choice will Yoon make in response to the love calls directed at him? Although he may be in a difficult situation, ripples have already begun in the presidential race, which had been unfolding quietly.