[Correspondent Diary] China Is Aging

Last Year's Birth Rate Hits Lowest in Over 70 Years... 54 Million Increase in Population Aged 65+ Over 10 Years
Sharp Decline in Working-Age Population Feared from 2050, the Year of Realizing the China Dream

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] "If you sell just one Choco Pie, how many is that? 1.4 billion, 1.4 billion."

This is a common phrase used when talking about the potential of China's domestic market. China’s population is 1.44 billion. China’s competitiveness lies in its population. This is the reason why global companies worldwide have flocked to China since the reform and opening-up, and the background behind China’s rapid economic growth.

However, warning signs have been lit for this Chinese competitiveness. The number of newborns in China has dropped to the lowest level in 70 years. As of the end of 2019, the number of newborns in China was 14.65 million. China’s state-run Global Times and Huanqiu Shibao reported that China’s birth rate is only 10.48 per 1,000 people.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The number of newborns in China has been rapidly decreasing every year since peaking at 17.86 million in 2016, when the Chinese government fully implemented the 'two-child policy.' Although China abolished the 'one-child policy' implemented since 1978 due to concerns about a population cliff, the atmosphere of reluctance to have children is evident.

On the other hand, the population aged 65 and over is rapidly increasing. The elderly population aged 65 and above, which was 106 million in 2009, surged to 111 million in 2011, 122 million in 2014, 135 million in 2016, 152 million in 2018, and 160 million in 2019. In just 10 years, the elderly population has grown by 54 million, exceeding the entire population of South Korea.

The aging problem is even more severe in large cities. As of last year, the population aged 60 and above residing in Beijing was 3.713 million, and the registered population aged 60 and above in Beijing was 3.677 million. This represents increases of 17.2% and 26.3%, respectively, compared to 2015.

The population aged 80 and above also reached 631,000. Beijing’s elderly support ratio is 44.3%, meaning that 1 elderly person is supported by 2.3 people.

Some predict that by 2050, China’s total population will decrease by 170 million, and the population aged 65 and above will approach 400 million. This far exceeds the criteria for a super-aged society (where the population aged 65 accounts for 20% of the total population).

The decline in the working-age population is a fatal blow to China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A decrease in the labor force reduces productivity.

Additionally, with the increase in social costs due to elderly support, China may face fiscal pressure.

The year 2050 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China and is the year when Chinese leadership, including President Xi Jinping, promised to realize the 'Chinese Dream (Zhongguo Meng).' The Chinese Dream is the basic blueprint for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, aiming to surpass the United States and become the world’s strongest power by 2050, and it is also known as the 'Xi Jinping Dream.'

From a demographic perspective, around 2050, China’s growth engine will lose power. It is uncertain whether the birth rate of Chinese people, who have experienced Xiaokang (a moderately prosperous society where all people live comfortably and abundantly), will rise again.