Early Voting for 2016 Presidential Election Surpasses 47.2 Million, Reflecting Intense Enthusiasm
Forecast Predicts 150 Million Early Voters
Biden Outpaces Trump in Presidential Campaign Funding
[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In this year's U.S. presidential election, the number of voters who have completed early voting, including mail-in ballots, has already surpassed the total early voting count from the previous election. This is interpreted as a result of Democratic-leaning voters turning out in large numbers to oppose President Donald Trump's re-election, making it another indicator to gauge the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
According to the U.S. election statistics site 'US Election Project' on the 22nd (local time), 47.8 million voters had participated in early voting as of the 21st. This exceeds the total early voting count of 47.2 million during the entire 2016 presidential election period.
The U.S. election is conducted through mail-in voting, in-person early voting, and in-person voting on election day. Among these, early voting refers to both in-person early voting conducted before election day and mail-in voting.
So far, 33.37 million voters have cast their ballots via mail-in voting, and 14.42 million have voted in-person early. The Washington Post (WP) predicted that due to the high enthusiasm for early voting, for the first time in U.S. history, a majority of American voters could vote before election day. The intense early voting enthusiasm is largely driven by concerns over the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
It is also noteworthy that early voting enthusiasm varies by party affiliation. Looking at early voting rates by party, 50.9% of Democrats, 26.6% of Republicans, and 21.9% of independents have voted early. Democratic voters actively prefer early voting, whereas Republican supporters tend to prefer voting on election day. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has been campaigning to encourage early voting, while President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about early voting, citing potential election fraud with mail-in ballots. However, according to foreign media, President Trump plans to cast his in-person early vote in Florida this weekend.
Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida, explained, "The number of voters participating in early voting could reach 150 million," adding, "This would represent 65% of all voters, the highest level since the 1908 election." A joint poll by WP and the University of Maryland also showed that over 60% of respondents said they would participate in early voting.
With less than two weeks remaining until the election, many analyses are predicting an advantage for Biden. In terms of campaign funds, Biden has already surpassed President Trump. According to The New York Times (NYT), Biden holds $177 million (2.011 billion KRW) in campaign funds, while Trump has only $63.1 million, about one-third of Biden's amount. Biden's campaign is leveraging its strong financial resources to launch a heavy advertising offensive, whereas Trump's campaign is even cutting back on scheduled advertisements.
NYT also pointed out changes in demographic composition. Trump won the last election by consolidating support among low-education (high school or below) white voters. However, in the past four years, the number of low-education white voters has decreased by 5 million. Meanwhile, the population of college-educated white voters and people of color has increased by 12 million. In other words, the playing field has changed significantly compared to four years ago.
Therefore, the key to this election is expected to be how much President Trump can rally his traditional support base. Louis Teixeira, a senior researcher at the Center for American Progress, said, "President Trump is on a sinking ship demographically," adding, "This is why he will struggle in this election."
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