Power Decentralization and Creation of a Favorable External Environment... Kim Jong Un's Blueprint for the 8th Party Congress

North Korea held a military parade on the 10th to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party. Chairman Kim Jong-un, dressed in a gray suit, is delivering a speech.

Since coming to power in 2012, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, who showed minimal public activity in the first half of this year, has recently been actively engaging in public appearances, drawing attention as structural changes in North Korea are being continuously observed. In particular, the impact of Kim’s unprecedented public speech at the 75th anniversary military parade of the Workers' Party is being evaluated as a sign forecasting a new situation on the Korean Peninsula in 2021.

North Korea’s state media, Korean Central News Agency, reported on the 15th that Chairman Kim inspected the typhoon damage recovery sites along the East Coast following his visit to the Kumdok district in South Hamgyong Province, reiterating the importance of local construction supervision and design. After completing the 75th anniversary military parade of the Party on the 10th, Kim immediately took a special train and traveled on temporarily restored railway tracks to continue his public engagement in the typhoon damage recovery areas.

According to the Korea Institute for National Unification, Kim’s public activities in the first half of this year totaled 19 times, the lowest number since his rise to power. In the first half of 2013, he made nearly 100 public appearances, and from 2017 to 2019, he averaged about 40 to 50 public activities. Thus, the significant reduction in public appearances this year is unusual. Since August, his extensive public activities have resumed, and these movements indicate the beginning of changes in Kim’s governance style.

First, the role of Kim Yo-jong, the Party’s First Deputy Director, has increased, and power decentralization has become visible. Kim Yo-jong led inter-Korean policy, including ordering the demolition of the Kaesong Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office in June, earning her the reputation as the second-in-command. The public appearances of key officials also show noticeable changes. On August 30, 2020, the Party’s official newspaper Rodong Sinmun reported on typhoon damage recovery in South Hwanghae Province, placing articles related to Chairman Kim without photos at the bottom right, while photos of Vice Chairman Pak Pong-ju and Premier Kim Tok-hun were placed prominently at the top left and right of the front page. Lee Seung-yeol, a legislative researcher at the National Assembly Research Service, said, "Publishing full-color photos of key Party officials’ local inspection scenes at the top of the front page is an unprecedented and very bold move."

Chairman Kim has also signaled a shift in foreign policy as well as domestic changes. In his speech, Kim sent conciliatory messages such as "Dear compatriots in the South" and "We will not use nuclear weapons preemptively." Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, analyzed, "This is effectively a declaration by the leader retracting the June plan for hostile actions and expressing an intention to revitalize inter-Korean relations depending on conditions." Although a self-reliant frontal breakthrough was declared in December last year, it was difficult to overcome the triple hardships of sanctions, infectious diseases, and flood damage. External support is necessary for economic achievements, and creating a friendly external relationship is essential.

The specific outline is expected to be revealed at the 8th Party Congress scheduled for early next year. Considering recent North Korean trends, there is also a mixed expectation that momentum to restart the stalled Korean Peninsula peace process may emerge. Hong said, "It is necessary to actively utilize the international attention on President Moon Jae-in’s proposal for a Northeast Asia quarantine and health cooperation system and the declaration of the end of the war," adding, "We need to consider making ‘overcoming the health crisis and peace on the Korean Peninsula’ two policy pillars to manage the anticipated uncertainty in the situation through the first half of next year."