After TV Debate, Biden Widens Poll Gap
Urgent Need for Turnaround Amid COVID-19 Infection
US Political Expert: "Can Gain Sympathy Votes"
The White House on the 4th released images showing President Donald Trump, who is hospitalized at Walter Reed Medical Center, holding a phone conference with Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley. [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]
[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Baek Jong-min] U.S. President Donald Trump, who is undergoing treatment for the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), made a bold move by making a "surprise outing." This is interpreted as a calculated action to boost his plummeting approval ratings after the first TV debate and to rally his support base. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden plans to focus his campaign by visiting swing states such as Florida.
According to local media including The New York Times (NYT) on the 4th (local time), President Trump made a surprise event by driving out of Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland and waving to his supporters. President Trump later expressed his sincere gratitude on Twitter to the supporters and donors who supported him outside the hospital. His facial expression appeared somewhat more lively than in the video from the previous day.
The video seems to have been recorded just before the outing. He described his experience with COVID-19 infection and treatment as "a very interesting journey. This is a real school. I will tell you about it." He then made a surprise appearance in front of supporters outside the hospital.
President Trump appears to be trying to overcome the major setback of contracting COVID-19 just 30 days before the presidential election through videos. The day before, he also appeared in a video to dispel rumors about his critical condition and to rally his support base.
Grant Reicher, a political expert and professor of political science at Syracuse University, predicted, "President Trump could gain sympathy votes from voters due to his COVID-19 infection." It is expected to be an opportunity for supporters who turned away disappointed after the TV debate to return.
Supporters of President Trump are gathered in front of Walter Reed Hospital. [Image source=AP Yonhap News]
Professor Reicher particularly anticipated, "How long President Trump needs to be treated for COVID-19 could be a key factor in this election." It is interpreted that if President Trump returns to the White House early, he could receive positive evaluations. White House physician Sean Conley has already indicated that President Trump might be discharged on the 5th.
For President Trump, it is necessary to find an opportunity to recover from the sharp drop in approval ratings experienced after the first TV debate, which was criticized as a "verbal brawl." After the news of his COVID-19 infection broke, a nationwide survey conducted by Reuters and Ipsos on October 2-3 among likely voters showed Biden leading with 51% support, widening the gap to more than 10 percentage points over Trump, who had 41%.
A survey released on the same day by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and NBC News, conducted from September 30 to October 1 among registered voters, showed an even larger gap between the two. In this survey, Biden led with 53% support, 14 percentage points ahead of Trump, who had 39%. In the same survey last month, the gap was 11 percentage points, indicating an expansion. This is the first time President Trump's approval rating has fallen below 40%. In the nationwide average approval ratings compiled by RealClearPolitics, Biden leads Trump by as much as 8.1 percentage points.
Signs of change are also appearing in swing states where Trump had been gaining ground. According to a New York Times and Siena College poll conducted after the first TV debate, Biden leads Trump by 5 percentage points in Florida. This is the exact opposite of the mid-September ABC News and Washington Post poll, which showed Trump leading by 4 percentage points. Florida is a key swing state with 29 electoral votes. In Pennsylvania, polls also show Biden's support rising after the TV debate.
On the same day, Biden tested negative for COVID-19 again and began a full-scale campaign targeting swing states. This is because it is still considered too early to be complacent compared to the 2016 presidential election. Biden plans to visit Florida on the 5th to launch an intensive campaign. Having gained an advantage in the first TV debate and with the opportunity created by President Trump's COVID-19 infection, Biden's determination not to miss the chance is evident. Simon Sanders, deputy campaign manager for Biden, said in an interview with the media, "Biden plans to attend the Florida TV debate," adding, "We hope President Trump will participate as well."
Attention is focused on the second TV debate scheduled to be held in Florida on the 15th. It is difficult to predict whether President Trump will recover sufficiently before the debate to participate normally in the 90-minute session. Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor and Trump's TV debate preparation aide, is also hospitalized due to COVID-19, making it difficult for him to assist. There has been no significant mention yet regarding postponement, cancellation, or changes in the format of the presidential candidates' TV debates.
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