Early October, One Month Before US Presidential Election, Secretary of State Pompeo's Sudden Visit to Korea

Visiting South Korea for a 2-day, 1-night trip immediately after Chuseok holidays... Holding a foreign ministers' meeting with Minister Kang Kyung-wha and possibly meeting President Moon Jae-in
Amid escalating US-China tensions, likely to emphasize the ROK-US alliance while conveying the US position

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] One month before the U.S. presidential election in November, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to visit South Korea in early October. This solo visit by Secretary Pompeo is the first in two years since October 2018 and about three months after Deputy Secretary Steve Biegun's visit to South Korea.

On the 24th, multiple government officials stated, "Secretary Pompeo is expected to come to South Korea in early next month," adding, "The schedule for his visit to South Korea on his way to Japan is being coordinated with the South Korean government." It is reported that Pompeo's visit is likely to be a one-night, two-day trip starting from October 7, right after the Chuseok holiday.

Regarding Pompeo's visit, which is being arranged at the request of the U.S. side, both countries are currently coordinating the timing and schedule. Pompeo is expected to enter South Korea via Osan Air Base using a private plane, following a route similar to that of Deputy Secretary Biegun in June. After consultations with quarantine authorities, it appears that the two-week quarantine will be waived.

Given that the visit is taking place just one month before the U.S. presidential election in November, there is considerable interest in the background of this visit. Pompeo is expected to visit South Korea for a one-night, two-day schedule immediately after Chuseok, hold bilateral talks with his counterpart, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, and possibly pay a courtesy call on President Moon Jae-in. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated, "There is nothing decided yet regarding the visit of U.S. officials," but did not deny the schedule of a high-ranking U.S. official's visit.

During his visit, Pompeo is likely to emphasize the South Korea-U.S. alliance amid escalating U.S.-China tensions and convey the U.S. position. Despite the global spread of COVID-19, the U.S. has requested South Korea's support for the Indo-Pacific strategy, including the anti-China bloc, the Economic Prosperity Network (EPN). Issues such as the stalled Korea-U.S. Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations, which have been deadlocked for nine months, and South Korea's invitation to the G7 summit postponed until after the U.S. election may also be discussed at the bilateral talks.

Additionally, there is a possibility that the expansion of the Quad Plus (Quad+), a four-party security dialogue among the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India targeting China, will be mentioned. Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party responsible for foreign affairs, visited South Korea in August to convey China's position on U.S.-China tensions, which is interpreted as a move to curb the expansion of face-to-face contacts between South Korea and China. During the courtesy call with President Moon, the 'Korean Peninsula End-of-War Declaration' proposed by President Moon in his keynote speech at the UN General Assembly on the 22nd (local time) and the 'Korean Peninsula Peace Process,' which the South Korean government has sought support for through various diplomatic channels, may be discussed.

As the so-called 'October Surprise' continues to be raised in the U.S., there is some expectation that Pompeo's visit might lead to a surprise visit to North Korea, but the general view is that this is highly unlikely. In Washington, speculation about an 'October Surprise' has persistently suggested that President Trump might use the North Korea-U.S. dialogue card before the November election by arranging a high-level meeting or achieving a small breakthrough. However, diplomats believe that considering North Korea's COVID-19 outbreak and flood recovery situation, the possibility of Pompeo contacting North Korea is low.