[Global Column] How Is the Upcoming US Presidential Election Different from Previous Ones?

The U.S. presidential election is rapidly approaching. According to a 2016 Gallup survey, South Korea ranked first in perceiving the influence of the U.S. presidential election on their own country.

It seems this was largely due to the concerns of our citizens over outsider candidate Trump’s bold promises such as increasing defense cost-sharing and abolishing free trade agreements. What about the 2020 U.S. presidential election?

Since the 1980s, the polarization of American politics and society has worsened and is now near its peak. Amid the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis, all economic indicators are at their worst. Moreover, the widespread introduction of mail-in voting makes it difficult to predict the vote count. If the winner is not decided by a majority of the Electoral College, many scenarios for subsequent developments are emerging. While the last election focused on the anger expressed by white working-class voters, this year’s election reflects ongoing anxiety among nearly all voters.

Like other countries, American democracy must be viewed through both change and continuity. First, incumbent President Trump still plays the outsider role, similar to the last election. He complains that the media attacks him with fake news and consistently undervalues his achievements. Due to the economic downturn caused by COVID-19, there are few issues Trump can claim as accomplishments. Second, while Hillary Clinton focused solely on criticizing Trump in 2016 and lost, Joe Biden in 2020 does not seem much different. Biden’s slogan "Build Back Better" is bland, and the Democratic Party platform is similar to Trump’s policies. Third, if conservative white working-class voters, united by feelings of alienation and crisis since the Obama era, overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2016, this year’s election also shows a clear divide among voters over racial issues. The Republican Party’s Latino outreach strategy, which was a serious concern during President George W. Bush’s era, appears to have been almost forgotten in the Trump era. Lastly, although Biden leads in polls, there remains a possibility that middle-class and higher voters who secretly support Trump are still hidden, which is similar to before.

The biggest difference in this year’s election compared to previous ones is that the incumbent president is running for re-election. Over the past four years, the Republican Party has transformed into Trump’s party, with all its organization and funding concentrated on him. Second, compared to Hillary Clinton, Biden has a relatively lower unfavorable rating and, compared to Obama or Sanders, relatively lower expectations. While a lower unfavorable rating is good, lower expectations are not necessarily bad. Politics is a "game of expectations." Biden still has room to be praised if he just meets expectations. The Democratic National Convention slogan "I Know Joe" expresses high trust but also subtly implies modest expectations. Third, suburban voters who supported Trump in 2016 shifted toward the Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections. However, recent violent protests and concerns over public safety may lead these voters to reconsider "law and order" President Trump. Fourth, Biden’s campaign, well aware that low turnout among Black voters in battleground states was a key factor in the last election loss, will work to secure Black votes until the final stages. Running mate Harris, along with Obama and Michelle, will campaign in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Detroit, while Biden will simultaneously advocate for Black civil rights and reject illegal violence.

Early voting has already begun in several states, and analyses suggest that nearly 90% of voters have made up their minds. Ultimately, the only remaining game changer in this election is the first TV debate scheduled for the 29th of this month. Through a direct face-to-face showdown between the two candidates, the future of America, struggling with COVID-19 and polarization, will likely be somewhat decided.

Seojeong Geon, Professor, Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Kyung Hee University