Presidential Election 'Pacemaker' Dilemma... The Anxiety of Victory, Prelude to Backlash

[Planning] 1 Year 6 Months Until Presidential Election, President and Second-in-Command (Part 2)… Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung's Spur Timing, Opposition's Chance for a Comeback

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's NoteThe 20th presidential election, scheduled for March 9, 2022, is now just a year and a half away. In Korean political history, the relationship between the incumbent president and the ruling party's presidential candidate is a focal point of interest. It is a burden for the president if too much political power is concentrated too early on the next presidential candidate, or if too little power is concentrated. We will analyze the relationship between the president and the second-in-command, and the dynamics of the 2022 presidential election based on this, in three parts.

"(Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon) is a pacemaker." This was stated by former Liberty Korea Party leader Hong Joon-pyo on his YouTube channel last March, ahead of the 21st general election. At that time, politician Lee Nak-yeon was overwhelmingly leading the Korean Gallup 'Preferred Next Political Leader' survey.

However, through his 'pacemaker' claim, former leader Hong predicted that the next presidential election would be a contest among himself, Yoo Si-min, and Roh Moo-hyun Foundation Chairman. In sports, a pacemaker is a role that takes the lead early on and then falls back at an appropriate time to assist the 'main player' in winning. Occasionally, a pacemaker maintains the early sprint and becomes the winner, but most often, they end up as expendable.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Unlike sports, in politics?especially in the presidential race?no one defines themselves as a pacemaker. Simply throwing one's hat into the ring reflects a will and desire for the presidency. The reason why the opposition refers to the ruling party's presidential candidate as a pacemaker is interpreted as an expression of fear or a political check. In fact, Chairman Yoo criticized former leader Hong's claim at the time, saying, "He used me as a tool to diss (former Prime Minister Lee)."

Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, running for party leader despite political risks, is an action that dismisses the pacemaker speculation. The same applies to Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung. It is hard to imagine either skipping the 2022 presidential election. Interestingly, regardless of their own will, there remains a possibility that one of the two could become a pacemaker.

If political impatience leads to an early sprint, it could backfire and result in becoming a pacemaker. This is also related to the fact that President Moon Jae-in's approval rating has consistently stayed in the 40% range, while the leading candidates of the ruling party are relatively less associated with the pro-Moon faction.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Usually, in presidential elections, the ruling party candidate uses differentiation from the incumbent president as an election strategy, but this time, due to cautiousness about the 'pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in) voter sentiment,' experts analyze that the election flow may differ from previous ones. Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, analyzed, "Both Governor Lee and Leader Lee are in a situation where it is not easy to stand politically alone, apart from President Moon."

Considering the close competition between Leader Lee and Governor Lee at the forefront, neither has reason to limit their role to that of a pacemaker. However, the general view is that the current approval ratings will not continue until the end of the presidential race. One of the presidential candidates may take a political gamble to reverse the situation, which could lead to a split within the ruling party.

Kim Jong-in, the emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, recognized for his 'kingmaker' ability, has been tight-lipped and continuing a 'Zen dialogue' regarding the next presidential election, which is interpreted as waiting for the right moment for a turnaround.

Kim Jong-in, Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party. / Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

The detection of cracks within the ruling party means it is a timing for the somewhat lagging opposition to seek a turnaround in the presidential race. Either Leader Lee or Governor Lee taking a full-fledged step to differentiate themselves from President Moon, or President Moon intervening in the election, could be variables that shake up the presidential race.

Experts believe that the Blue House is well aware of this situation and therefore must cautiously manage the presidential election. Professor Lee Jun-han of the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Incheon National University forecasted, "It is difficult for President Moon to endorse a specific candidate. The moment that happens, the sidelined side will organize a backlash, which will work to the opposition's advantage."