[US Presidential Election D-53] The Rude Challenger VS The Shield of a Gentleman... Poll Ratings Fluctuate Again

Narrowing Gap Focused on Battleground States
First TV Debate on 29th Expected to Be a Turning Point

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] The U.S. presidential election, just over 50 days away, is showing unusual signs. Despite various controversies and critical public opinion that had kept President Donald Trump at a disadvantage against Democratic candidate Joe Biden, Trump has recently begun to narrow the gap, especially in battleground states. In Florida, the state with the third-largest number of electoral votes among the 50 states, recent polls showed the two candidates tied in support. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, which has made the candidates' individual capabilities more crucial than ever, it is expected that as the election campaign nears its end, attention will focus more on the straightforward President Trump rather than the 'bland' Biden.

This election is being seen as a battle between spear and shield. This is due to the personalities of Trump, who relies on blunt remarks and negativity, and Biden, who has had a low-profile 40-year political career, in a situation where policy competition has virtually disappeared. The spear (Trump) is becoming sharper, but the shield (Biden) is no longer becoming sturdier.

Trump, once trailing due to controversies, narrows gap centered on battleground states

This assessment is confirmed by polling data. Overall, Biden still leads Trump in public opinion polls. However, the gap in support is narrowing. Particularly in battleground states that decide the election outcome, the race is tight. According to RealClearPolitics, a political analysis site, as of November 1 (local time), Biden led Trump by an average of 2.7 percentage points in six battleground states including North Carolina and Michigan, but this is a significant narrowing from the 5.6 percentage points gap a month earlier.

Notably, on November 8 (local time), NBC and Marist Poll released a survey in the key battleground state of Florida showing President Trump and Biden tied at 48% support among likely voters. Among registered voters, Trump even led Biden by 1 percentage point, with 48% to 47% support.

Support in battleground states carries significant weight given the winner-takes-all nature of the U.S. presidential election. Even a slight lead in voter count can secure all the electoral votes. In the 2016 election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more votes nationwide but lost all six battleground states, resulting in her failure to enter the White House. Florida has 29 electoral votes, the third highest among the 50 states, and the six battleground states (Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin) combined hold 101 electoral votes, accounting for 19% of the total 538 electoral votes.

"Sleepy Joe... China's Puppet" Biden Strengthens Ground Campaign to Counter Trump's Attacks

The main reason for the narrowing gap is that President Trump is solidifying his support base by attacking Biden, while Biden has relatively failed to make a strong impression. Trump has targeted Biden's age, 77, portraying him as frail and weak. Calling Biden 'Sleepy Joe' is an attack exploiting Biden's vulnerability due to his age. Despite Biden's higher poll numbers, Trump dismissed him as "not even a factor." He also described Biden as "China's puppet" amid escalating tensions with China. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) editorial on November 8 noted, "Trump's Republican Party has shrunk but become more deeply rooted in its core base." It also stated that although Biden still leads in key battleground states, Trump will fight desperately to secure electoral votes.

On the other hand, Biden, who must defend against Trump's attacks, has been criticized as bland and has shown a gentlemanly demeanor. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he has not left his home state of Delaware for five months. This has left voters with the impression that while he is better than President Trump, he has failed to establish a strong presence. Instead, Vice Presidential candidate Senator Kamala Harris has been active. When Trump insulted her by saying she was unqualified to run for vice president because she was born to immigrant parents, Harris countered by accusing him of "lying and engaging in fraud."

Recognizing these limitations, Biden has recently stepped up his ground campaign, traveling through battleground states to appeal for support. He is taking the 1988 election as a cautionary tale, where Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis, once a frontrunner, lost after being caught in George H. W. Bush's negative campaign tactics. On November 9, Biden's campaign released an ad using audio from an interview between Trump and journalist Bob Woodward, who exposed the Watergate scandal, turning Bush's attack strategy against Trump. On November 10, Biden strongly criticized Trump in an interview with CNN, saying, "Trump seems to have no concept of what constitutes national security." This was in response to Axios's report that Trump asked if a nuclear bomb could be dropped into the eye of a hurricane to dissipate it.

The first televised debate scheduled for November 29 in Cleveland is expected to be a turning point for the candidates' support levels. It is anticipated to provide an opportunity for Trump to gain momentum. In a poll conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University from October 28 to 31 with 1,000 voters, 47% believed Trump would have the upper hand in the debate, compared to 41% who thought Biden would prevail.