Abe's Legacy Likely to Uphold US-Japan Alliance-Focused Foreign Strategy
Improvement in Korea-Japan Relations Unlikely... Some Expect Focus on Managing Situation Rather Than Worsening Conflict
[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] Yoshihide Suga, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, is increasingly likely to become the new Prime Minister, succeeding Shinzo Abe. As expectations rise that the transitional cabinet will essentially be a 'Season 2' continuation of the Abe administration, which was fixated on the US-Japan alliance and pursued an aggressive foreign policy, the possibility of immediate improvement in Korea-Japan relations does not appear to be visible.
According to Japanese local media such as NHK on the 2nd, as Minister Suga's chances of succeeding Prime Minister Abe grow, the prospect that he has effectively been decided as the next Prime Minister is gaining strength. On the 1st, Fumio Kishida, Chairman of the Policy Research Council, and Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), declared their candidacies, but it is reported that Minister Suga has already secured the support of five out of the seven factions within the LDP. Considering this, Yomiuri Shimbun estimated that the support Suga has secured amounts to 294 votes out of 394 total Diet members' votes (about 75% of the parliamentary votes). Asahi Shimbun also estimated the number to be over 284 votes.
Although controversy over the election method is intensifying, the possibility has increased further as the LDP opted for a simplified election method. The day before, the LDP decided to elect the party president through a simplified election method called the 'Bicameral Parliamentary Members' Meeting.' This means that the votes of Diet members have become more important. The LDP president is decided by a total of 535 votes, which includes 394 votes from Diet members and 141 votes from representatives of the LDP's prefectural federation associations. Accordingly, Asahi Shimbun reported, "The atmosphere that Minister Suga will be elected president has become stronger." Mainichi Shimbun also reported, "'One strong, two weak' structure has been confirmed," adding, "Minister Suga enjoys strong support from major factions and holds a significant advantage in Diet members' votes."
As the tide of the next Japanese Prime Minister election turns toward Minister Suga, attention is also focused on the possibility of improving the deteriorating Korea-Japan relations. South Korea and Japan still maintain a tense stance over issues such as Japan's unilateral export restrictions that began with the enforcement of the Korean Supreme Court's ruling on forced labor compensation during Japanese colonial rule, and the termination of the Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha and newly appointed First Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-geon have reiterated their intention to continue a 'two-track' approach addressing historical issues and practical cooperation, but no noticeable progress has been made so far.
Since Minister Suga has served for 7 years and 8 months under the Abe administration, it is highly likely that while ensuring thorough measures against COVID-19, he will emphasize a message of inheriting Abe's policies. Inside and outside the government, the prevailing view is that although Suga may show a more defensive stance in foreign policy compared to Abe, he will not change the major policy direction. Moreover, there is speculation that former Prime Minister Abe, who announced his resignation but did not express intentions to retire from politics, will exert influence by putting forward Suga, who lacks a political faction, as the front figure.
However, some analysts suggest that the aggressive attitude toward South Korea may be somewhat softened. Since it is a one-year transitional cabinet, it is expected that disputes will not be escalated. Yuji Hosaka, professor at the College of Liberal Arts, Sejong University, explained, "Although there is a tendency to consider Minister Suga as an Abe loyalist, he is actually close to Toshihiro Nikai, the LDP Secretary-General known as pro-Korean, and also has a friendly relationship with former Secretary-General Ishiba. He is unlikely to push an irrational anti-Korean policy or aggressive foreign policy as the Abe administration did."
Meanwhile, the LDP plans to announce the presidential election on the 8th and conduct voting and counting on the 14th. The next LDP president elected here will become Japan's next Prime Minister at an extraordinary Diet session on the 16th or 17th.
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