[Asia Economy Reporter Park So-yeon] With less than a month remaining until the 'Battery Day' event hosted by U.S. electric vehicle company Tesla, industry attention is focused on the potential impact on domestic and international battery sectors.
According to industry sources on the 30th, Tesla will unveil new secondary battery technology at Battery Day on September 22 (local time).
Although the exact details have not yet been disclosed, key issues being discussed include all-solid-state batteries, in-house battery production or switching to Chinese CATL batteries, and revolutionary battery cost reductions.
The all-solid-state battery is next-generation technology that replaces the liquid electrolyte between the battery’s anode and cathode with a solid material.
This technology theoretically doubles the energy capacity compared to current lithium-ion batteries and eliminates explosion risks, earning it the title of the 'ultimate battery.'
In Korea, Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology and others are researching core technologies. Until now, the industry has believed that practical application is still a long way off.
However, some speculate that Tesla may unveil all-solid-state battery technology this time, following its acquisition last year of Maxwell, an R&D company developing all-solid-state battery technology.
If Tesla announces plans for mass production of all-solid-state batteries this time, it would inevitably cause a seismic shift in the global battery industry, but many experts consider this scenario unlikely.
Even if Tesla and Maxwell have succeeded in developing significant all-solid-state battery technology, it is pointed out that the mass production stage with economic feasibility is an entirely different matter.
For example, British company Dyson acquired Sakti3, an R&D firm with innovative all-solid-state battery technology, and ambitiously entered the electric vehicle business, but abandoned the project last year citing 'commercial success is impossible.'
Tesla has steadily pursued in-house battery production. It is widely reported that the company is likely to announce its battery production business, known as the 'Roadrunner Project,' at this event.
However, considering the massive facility investments required for mass production, it is generally expected that Tesla will find it difficult to immediately declare in-house battery mass production and replacement of existing batteries.
Nonetheless, even if Tesla does not announce in-house production immediately, concerns remain that any future announcement of internalization plans could affect investor sentiment toward domestic battery stocks.
It is also reported that Tesla is jointly developing the so-called '1 million mile battery,' which significantly extends battery life to about 1.6 million kilometers, with China’s largest battery manufacturer CATL, raising concerns that Tesla might switch its main suppliers from Panasonic and LG Chem to CATL.
CATL’s main product, the LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) battery, is safer and cheaper compared to the currently mainstream NCM (Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese) battery, also known as ternary battery.
However, due to its lower energy capacity and shorter driving range at the same volume, it is generally expected that LFP batteries will not completely replace NCM batteries.
Industry experts in the securities sector predict that the core item Tesla will actually present this time is battery technology that drastically reduces costs.
They expect Tesla to unveil batteries with costs lowered to below $100 per kWh (approximately 120,000 KRW), competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles, presenting a vision where electric vehicles completely surpass internal combustion vehicles in terms of price.
To achieve this, Tesla is expected to first introduce batteries that significantly reduce or eliminate cobalt.
Cobalt, priced at over $33,000 per ton, has been the biggest obstacle to lowering battery costs.
Tesla is predicted to propose a 'two-track' approach: LFMP batteries without cobalt but with lower performance, and high-performance high-nickel batteries with increased nickel content and significantly reduced cobalt in existing NCM batteries.
Among these, CATL is expected to be the main supplier of LFMP batteries, while LG Chem and Panasonic are anticipated to be the primary suppliers of high-nickel batteries.
Maxwell, acquired by Tesla, possesses dry battery electrode coating technology, which is also considered a strong candidate for cost reduction.
Additionally, the 'nanowire' technology hinted at in images recently released on Tesla’s Battery Day website is also highly likely to be adopted.
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