"Kim Jong-un Unable to Leave Country Due to COVID... Difficulties in North Korea-US Talks"

Russian Ambassador in Pyongyang Claims
"Too Great a Risk to Kim Jong-un's Life"

On June 30, 2019, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, and Donald Trump, President of the United States, hold talks at the Freedom House on the South Korean side of Panmunjom.

Amid mixed predictions about the possibility of holding a third North Korea?U.S. summit within the year, the Russian ambassador to Pyongyang has once again forecasted that it is unlikely for North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump to meet before the U.S. presidential election in November.

On the 22nd (local time), Ambassador Aleksandr Matsegora stated in an interview with the Russian online media outlet NEWS.ru, "Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which is unlikely to end before November, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea will not agree to the party leader (Chairman Kim Jong-un) traveling abroad." He explained, "(Chairman Kim's travel) would pose too great a risk to his life and health."

Since former U.S. National Security Council (NSC) advisor John Bolton predicted an 'October surprise' last month, the possibility of a third North Korea?U.S. summit has been steadily raised. Bolton said, "If President Trump feels he is in significant political trouble, he might see another meeting with his friend Kim Jong-un as something that could turn the situation around."

On the 16th (local time), U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, while downplaying the likelihood of a North Korea?U.S. summit before the U.S. election, left the door open for a third summit by considering scenarios that could yield positive outcomes. In an interview with Fox News that day, Pompeo said, "We will not let Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump meet unless there is something they can achieve."

However, Pompeo added, "If we reach a place where we can achieve a good result, a significant step toward the world's goal of North Korean denuclearization, we will find a way to bring the (North Korea?U.S.) leaders together." Although the limited time remaining before the U.S. election and the lack of even working-level negotiations make holding a summit realistically difficult, it is interpreted that the door for a third summit remains open.

North Korea also continues to keep that possibility open. On the 10th, Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, expressed her personal view that a North Korea?U.S. summit is unlikely to occur this year but added that no one knows what sudden developments might happen depending on the decisions of the North Korea?U.S. leaders.

Lee In-young, nominee for Minister of Unification, also highlighted the possibility of North Korea?U.S. dialogue resuming within the year. At a confirmation hearing held by the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on the 23rd, Lee said, "There seems to be a possibility that dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. could resume before the U.S. election."

Regarding Kim Yo-jong's expression of interest in possessing a DVD of the U.S. Independence Day event, he explained, "It leaves room for North Korea?U.S. dialogue while simultaneously implying that she herself is the channel for such dialogue."

Meanwhile, Ambassador Matsegora predicted that the deterioration of inter-Korean relations could lead to the annulment of military agreements between the two sides. He likened inter-Korean relations to a sea alternating between storms and calm, saying, "The relatively stable period will soon end, and then the level of tension will rise," and anticipated that "the situation could lead to the annulment of the September 19, 2018, inter-Korean military agreement."