President Moon's Approval Rating Dead Cross... Lee Jae-myung Gyeonggi Governor Supreme Court Ruling Also a National Variable
[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] The 'cold front' that will mark a turning point in President Moon Jae-in's fourth year in office has landed at the Blue House. The 'warm breeze' of the sweeping victory in the general election disappeared long ago, and the 'north wind' of successive political setbacks is enveloping the Blue House.
It has been only three months since the April 15 general election, which marked the greatest victory in the history of the Democratic Party. While some degree of checks and balances was expected due to the concentration of power within the ruling party, the fact that cracks are being detected even before the full operation of the 'government triangle' is underway is unusual. This could deal a direct blow to President Moon's blueprint for governance.
On the 14th, President Moon announced a grand national project design at the 'Korean New Deal' national report event, stating, "We will select representative projects that will transform our economy, society, and the lives of our people, and invest intensively." This is a task that is difficult to guarantee success even when combining the capabilities of the Blue House, government, National Assembly, and local governments.
In a public opinion poll released by Realmeter on the 16th for the third week of July, President Moon experienced a 'dead cross' in approval ratings for his governance. The poll, commissioned by tbs and conducted from the 13th to the 15th among 1,510 voters aged 18 and over nationwide, showed a positive evaluation of President Moon's performance at 44.1% and a negative evaluation at 51.7%. Positive ratings dropped by 4.6 percentage points from the previous week, while negative ratings rose by 5.2 percentage points. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
Notably, President Moon's traditional support groups such as Seoul residents, people in their 30s, and women are showing signs of wavering. This indicates that the decline in approval ratings is not due to the traditional ideological confrontation of 'progressives vs conservatives' or generational and regional conflicts. The main cause of the decline is disappointment and dissatisfaction with real estate policies, which are particularly sensitive issues for the younger generation raising children.
The shockwave surrounding the late former Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon also negatively affected public opinion. The decline in support in Seoul and among women is not coincidental. What troubles President Moon is that his plan to draw a blueprint for the remainder of his term based on the government, National Assembly, and local governments?the government triangle?is shaking.
On the 14th, citizens are watching President Moon Jae-in's 'Korean New Deal National Report Conference' in the Seoul Station waiting room. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@
Since 2011, the equation 'Seoul Mayor = Democratic Party member' had been maintained, but this equation has now been disrupted. The acting Seoul mayor system is unlikely to expect a strong city administration, and it is uncertain whether the ruling party can regain the Seoul mayoral position in the by-elections scheduled for April next year. If a Seoul mayor from the opposition party emerges and confronts key government policies, President Moon may end his term before even trying to do anything.
The 'fate' of Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung is also a key variable that will influence President Moon's governance plans. If the Supreme Court's appeal trial on the 16th results in him losing his governorship, the shockwave is expected to extend to the Blue House. Gyeonggi Province, with a population exceeding 13 million, is as important a local government as Seoul and is closely related to the national tasks pursued by President Moon.
If a new metropolitan government head is elected in Gyeonggi Province following Seoul, the whirlwind of elections could shake the political landscape until 2021. On the other hand, if Governor Lee receives a retrial ruling that overturns the guilty verdict, it could provide an opportunity to escape the recent cloud of setbacks concentrated in the ruling party.
Separately, the Blue House plans to focus on early blocking of the crisis across the entire government and restoring governance momentum. Kim Sang-jo, Chief Presidential Secretary for Policy, appeared on tbs radio's 'Kim Eo-jun's News Factory' on the 16th and said, "If we achieve results that the people can clearly feel over the next two years, momentum will accelerate," adding, "To achieve results, we must overcome the various difficulties we are currently facing and gain the trust of the people."
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