[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] Amid a global decline in birth rates, the world population is projected to reach 8.8 billion by the end of the 21st century, which is 2 billion less than the original estimate by the United Nations (UN). It is predicted that the populations of Asia, including Korea, and Europe will decrease by more than half.
On the 15th (local time), researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine in the United States analyzed population-related scenarios for 195 countries worldwide and published their findings in the British medical journal The Lancet. The researchers forecast that the global population, which has been increasing by 1-2% annually since 1950, will peak at approximately 9.7 billion in 2064 before declining.
In particular, the populations of 23 countries in Asia and Europe, including Korea, Japan, Thailand, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Poland, are expected to decrease by more than half around that time. According to the researchers' scenario, Korea's population will drop from 52.67 million in 2017 to 26.78 million in 2100, halving in size. North Korea's population is also projected to decline from 25.72 million to 12.98 million during the same period.
China, the most populous country in the world, is expected to see its population decrease from 1.41248 billion in 2017 to 731.89 million in 2100, also halving. In contrast, the United States is projected to experience a smaller decline, from 324.84 million to 335.81 million, while Japan's population will decrease by more than half, from 128.36 million to 59.72 million.
Not all countries will see population declines. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly triple, reaching about 3 billion. Notably, Nigeria's population is projected to increase from 206 million in 2017 to 790 million in 2100.
The researchers anticipate that the decrease in population will lead to a reduction in the labor force and taxpayers, negatively impacting the economy. Countries with large populations that drive economic growth, such as China and India, are expected to see weakened economic power as their populations decline.
China's working-age population is projected to shrink from 950 million to 350 million, and India's from 762 million to 578 million, while Nigeria's will expand from 86 million to 450 million. As a result, China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to surpass that of the United States by 2050 but fall back to second place half a century later. Nigeria, currently ranked 28th, is expected to rise to 9th place, according to the researchers.
Korea's GDP ranking is also expected to be affected by population decline. It was 14th in 2017, is projected to remain 15th in 2030 and 2050, and fall to 20th by 2100, the researchers forecasted.
The researchers suggested that for economically wealthy countries to maintain population levels and continue economic growth, it is best to provide generous support to families who want children and to implement flexible immigration policies. Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet, stated that the study's results "show that geopolitical power is changing radically" and that "by the end of this century, the world will be multipolar, centered around India, Nigeria, China, and the United States."
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