President Moon's Approval Rating Plummets to 47%... Impact of Real Estate Policy Failure [Gallup]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] A public opinion poll revealed that President Moon Jae-in's approval rating has fallen to 40% for six consecutive weeks. The controversy over the government's 'failure in real estate measures' is analyzed as the main cause of the decline in approval ratings.

Korea Gallup announced on the 10th that in a survey conducted from the 7th to the 9th targeting 1,001 people aged 18 and over, 47% of respondents gave a positive evaluation of President Moon's job performance. This is a 3 percentage point drop from the previous week. Negative evaluations rose by 5 percentage points to 44%.

By age group, the positive/negative rates were 46%/40% for ages 18-29 (hereafter '20s'), 52%/40% for 30s, 62%/34% for 40s, 42%/53% for 50s, and 40%/50% for 60 and older. This week's increase in positive ratings and decrease in negative ratings were notable in the metropolitan area and among those in their 50s, with more changes among centrists and progressives than conservatives.

By party support, 77% of Democratic Party supporters positively evaluated the president's job performance, while 85% of United Future Party supporters evaluated it negatively. Among those without party affiliation, negative ratings also led (positive 32%, negative 53%).

When asked the reasons for positive evaluations from those who approved of the president's job performance (475 people), the responses were 'response to COVID-19' (29%), 'doing their best/working hard', 'expansion of welfare', 'overall good performance' (all 7%), 'relations with North Korea' (5%), 'efforts for ordinary people' (4%), 'diplomacy/international relations', 'considering the people's position', and 'real estate policy' (all 3%) in order.

Those with negative evaluations (439 people) cited reasons such as 'real estate policy' (25%), 'lack of solutions to economic and livelihood issues', 'overall inadequacy' (both 11%), 'relations with North Korea' (9%), 'arbitrary/one-sided/biased' (5%), 'personnel issues' (4%), 'excessive welfare', and 'inadequate COVID-19 response' (both 3%).

For the first time since the current government took office, real estate issues ranked first as the reason for negative evaluations of the president's job performance. Gallup's survey on the government's real estate policy during the same period also clearly showed strong opposition to the policy.

The survey results showed that 64% of respondents answered that the government is 'doing poorly' on real estate policy, while only 17% said it is 'doing well'.

Across most respondent characteristics such as gender, age, and region, the opinion that the government is 'doing poorly' on real estate policy was dominant. Gallup stated, "Compared to early last month before the announcement of the June 17 measures, the positive rating dropped by 7 percentage points and the negative rating increased by 22 percentage points," adding, "Negative evaluations of real estate policy are also at the highest level since the current government took office."

When asked the reasons for negative evaluations of real estate policy (635 people), 'rising housing prices/housing is expensive' (25%) was the most common. This was followed by 'ineffectiveness/not a fundamental solution' (9%), 'side effects of regulations/balloon effect', 'lack of consistency/flip-flopping' (each 8%), 'harm to ordinary people/difficulty for ordinary people to live' (6%), and others. Other reasons included 'deepening regional polarization', 'excessive loan restrictions', 'strict regulations' (all 5%), 'need to increase supply/supply shortage', and 'increase in property tax/comprehensive real estate tax' (both 4%).

Gallup explained, "Until before the announcement of the June 17 measures, the top reason for positive evaluations was always 'expectations for stabilization of the real estate market,' but this time it changed to 'effort/attitude.' It is characteristic that contradictory criticisms related to regulations appeared mixed among the reasons for negative evaluations."

Party support was 40% for the Democratic Party, 20% for the United Future Party, 6% for the Justice Party, 4% for the People's Party, and 2% for the Open Democratic Party.

By political orientation, 67% of progressives supported the Democratic Party, and 51% of conservatives supported the United Future Party. Among centrists, 32% supported the Democratic Party and 16% supported the United Future Party, while 32% did not answer which party they support. The proportion of those without party affiliation was highest among people in their 20s at 44%.

In the next political leader preference survey, Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Nak-yeon ranked first with 24%. He was followed by Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung (13%), Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl (7%), and People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (3%).

Governor Lee's support rose from around 3% at the beginning of the year to the low teens since March. Regarding Prosecutor General Yoon, Gallup explained, "Although he is not a politician, responses have consistently come from conservatives and those who negatively evaluate the president's job performance."

This survey contacted 7,932 adults aged 18 and over nationwide, with a final 1,001 respondents completing the survey, recording a 13% response rate. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.