Defense Research Institute "Coordinating Timing of North Korea SLBM Launch"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] An analysis has been raised that North Korea may be gauging the timing of its provocation means, submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launches.

On the 8th, the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), a government-funded research institute, analyzed in its report titled "Background of North Korea's Recent Short-term Offensive and Future Situation Outlook" that North Korea's future strategic provocation type is likely to be an SLBM ejection test.

The report forecasted, "Since SLBMs are a means that can be used and deliver the greatest shock, North Korea will likely try to gauge the (launch) timing." It added, "So far, the United Nations (UN) Security Council has never passed a resolution solely based on SLBM tests, so the political and diplomatic costs can be considered low."

In particular, KIDA pointed out the need to pay attention to the report by former National Intelligence Service Director Suh Hoon to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on May 6. At that time, former Director Suh said at the Intelligence Committee, "Underwater ejection equipment for SLBMs continues to be identified at the Sinpo Shipyard in South Hamgyong Province," and "the acceleration of SLBM development and the possibility of test launches are open."

The report analyzed, "It is highly likely that the heightened tension between South and North Korea will be maintained until next month." However, it added, "If both the U.S. and China focus on pandemic and economic issues, the level of conflict will not escalate, and the timing of strategic provocations may be adjusted to after the U.S. presidential election, when the next administration's diplomatic table is set (February to March 2021)."

Furthermore, it predicted that North Korea's offensive actions are unlikely to be prolonged and will likely be low-intensity provocations limited to the Korean Peninsula to control the level of tension. It is highly probable that North Korea will maintain strategic flexibility in preparation for a future phase of atmosphere change. There is also an analysis that North Korea may more actively attempt cyber and psychological warfare offensives, which are difficult for our government to respond to immediately.

The report suggested that since North Korea's motive is to draw more support from China, President Xi Jinping's visit to South Korea should be strategically utilized. It emphasized, "If we try to use President Xi's visit only as a 'warning message to North Korea,' the visit is unlikely to be realized," and added, "The meaning of 'effective communication between South Korea and China for North Korea support' should also be considered."