Democratic Party Support Falls Below 40%... Centrist and 20s Turning Away [Realmeter]

Seoul, 20s, and Moderate Voters Lead Decline
Impact of Real Estate Measures and Incheon Airport Crisis

[Asia Economy Reporters Park Cheol-eung, Kang Nahum] The centrist voters and those in their 20s are drifting away from the government and the ruling party. This appears to be influenced by the parliamentary deadlock caused by the Democratic Party of Korea's sole control, discord within the prosecution, instability in the real estate market, and controversies over the conversion of irregular workers to regular positions at Incheon International Airport Corporation.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter commissioned by YTN from the 29th of last month to the 3rd of this month, the Democratic Party's approval rating dropped by 2.9 percentage points from the previous week's aggregate to 38.3%, Realmeter announced on the 6th. This is the largest decline since the 5th week of April when it fell by 7.4 percentage points, and it is the first time in 20 weeks that the rating has fallen into the 30% range since the 2nd week of February (39.9%).

On the other hand, the United Future Party rose by 2.0 percentage points from the previous week to 30.1%, barely reaching the 30% range for the first time in 14 weeks since the 4th week of March (30.0%). The gap between the Democratic Party and the United Future Party narrowed to single digits again for the first time in 15 weeks since the 3rd week of March (8.5%).

The Democratic Party's decline in support was led by Seoul, people in their 20s, and centrists. The United Future Party's rise was driven by Busan and Gyeongnam (PK), people in their 20s, centrists, and student and housewife demographics. By age group, the Democratic Party's support among 18-29-year-olds was 31.6%, the lowest except for those aged 70 and above (30.2%). This is 17 percentage points lower than the 40s age group (48.6%). Among only 18-29-year-olds, the United Future Party's support was slightly higher at 32.0% compared to the Democratic Party.

Among respondents with a centrist ideological orientation, the Democratic Party's support was 35.0%, not significantly different from the United Future Party's 32.0%. Progressive respondents showed 59.7% support for the Democratic Party.

The sharp decline in the Democratic Party's approval rating is analyzed to be due to unfavorable issues such as the sole formation of the National Assembly, controversies over the June 17 real estate measures, and the lack of clear factors for rising support. The low expectations for follow-up real estate policies also seem to have had an impact.

In particular, the ongoing defection of people in their 20s due to the aftermath of the irregular-to-regular worker conversion issue at Incheon International Airport Corporation appears to have relatively benefited the United Future Party.

Meanwhile, President Moon Jae-in's approval rating also dropped by 3.5 percentage points from the previous week to 49.8%. This marks six consecutive weeks of decline and the first time in 15 weeks that the rating has fallen into the 40% range. Conversely, disapproval rose by 2.8 percentage points to 45.5%. The 'Don't know/No response' category was 4.7%. The decline in approval was led by Seoul and PK regions, people in their 30s and 50s, centrists, and office workers. Notably, disapproval was higher among the politically unaffiliated at 61.8% and centrists at 52.5%, exceeding the overall average.

Recent polls on various current issues also indicate that the centrist public's alienation from the ruling party is becoming more pronounced, deepening the Democratic Party's concerns. In a poll conducted by Realmeter on the 1st (commissioned by tbs, targeting 500 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, with a 4.6% response rate and a ±4.4 percentage point margin of error at a 95% confidence level), about half of respondents reacted negatively to the Democratic Party's unilateral election of standing committee chairs.

In a poll conducted by Gallup Korea from the 30th of last month to the 2nd of this month (targeting 1,000 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, with an 11% response rate and a ±3.1 percentage point margin of error at a 95% confidence level), 45% evaluated Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae's job performance as 'poor,' higher than the 40% who said 'good.'

Especially among those in their 20s, dissatisfaction and anxiety about employment intensified due to the irregular worker controversy at Incheon International Airport, which many analysts say eventually led to resentment toward the government and ruling party. The real estate issue contributed to the overall deterioration of public opinion.

This survey contacted 61,581 eligible voters nationwide aged 18 and over, with a final 2,511 respondents completing the survey, resulting in a 4.1% response rate and a ±2.0 percentage point margin of error at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.