Can 46-Year-Old Putin, Who Seized Power, Remain President Until Age 83?

Constitutional Nullification Blocking a Third Term
Russia with Virtually No Rival Competitors
Putin Skilled in Political Maneuvering
COVID-19 Crisis and Economic Hardships as the Only Obstacles

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the Russian constitution banning a third term candidacy being nullified through a national referendum this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin has laid the foundation to rule Russia until 2036. Foreign media and experts view that since there is no force in Russia capable of opposing President Putin’s power, his plan for lifelong rule is practically feasible.

Russian President Vladimir Putin
[Photo by AP Yonhap News]

President Putin emerged at the forefront of power in 1999 when then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin abruptly appointed him as prime minister. After President Yeltsin resigned mid-term, Putin became the 3rd president of Russia in the 2000 presidential election. Having been elected as the 4th president, he was barred by the constitutional three-term limit from running for a 5th term, so he put forward his close aide Dmitry Medvedev as the presidential candidate and had him elected, while Putin himself became prime minister. Although constitutionally the president holds the highest office, Putin was the de facto ruler. After the three-term limit was lifted, Putin ran for the 6th presidency, won, and was re-elected, making him the current 7th president. His term lasts until 2024, but with this constitutional amendment, the three-term limit has been lifted exclusively for Putin, allowing him to run for the 8th presidency.

Foreign media predict that if President Putin rules Russia until 2036, he will become the longest-serving leader in modern Russian history, surpassing Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Having come to power at age 46, Putin could remain Russia’s ruler until he is 83. This speculation is not fanciful because Russia currently lacks any politicians, including in the ruling party and opposition, who can rival President Putin.

In fact, this constitutional amendment did not require a national referendum. It could have been passed solely by the Russian parliament, but holding the referendum was intended to gain overwhelming support from the Russian people for the constitution that nullifies the three-term candidacy ban (while three consecutive terms remain prohibited, this restriction was lifted only for the upcoming election due to a redefinition of presidential powers). This was to officially recognize Putin’s re-election both domestically and internationally. President Putin has faced criticism for playing a key role not only within Russia but also abroad. For example, he was accused of interfering in the U.S. presidential election and the UK Brexit referendum, and he has been adept at using military force in events such as the annexation of Crimea and the Chechen wars.

Prior to the referendum, Russia held a Victory Day military parade commemorating the end of World War II, and politically shrewdly combined issues such as pensions and homosexuality with the constitutional amendment to boost public support. The amendment process itself began amid announcements of a coup-level constitutional and cabinet reshuffle and was completed successfully.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, there are some risk factors.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia suffered significant damage, ranking third worldwide in confirmed cases. Curiously, the death rate relative to confirmed cases is extremely low, leading to suspicions that Russia is concealing death statistics.

The economic situation is also unfavorable. The crisis was exacerbated by a plunge in international oil prices, worsening Russia’s economic condition. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Russia’s economy to contract by -6.6% this year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. daily newspaper The Washington Post (WP) explained, “The absence of politicians who can replace President Putin does not demonstrate Putin’s strength, but rather indicates that Russia is stuck in political stagnation.”