President Moon Jae-in Conveys Need for North Korea-US Summit to US Side... Political Variables Including Trump’s Election Pros and Cons Also Key Points to Watch
[Asia Economy Reporters Jungmin Ryu, Dongpyo Kim] President Moon Jae-in's statement that a North Korea?U.S. summit is necessary before the U.S. presidential election in November is intertwined with a strategic move to manage the situation by easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Considering the internal circumstances of both North Korea and the U.S., the general consensus is that the likelihood of a third North Korea?U.S. summit between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un is low.
A senior Blue House official stated on the 1st, "The U.S. side also agrees and is currently making efforts," but skeptical views remain. If the meeting were merely to provide a 'peace image,' North Korea would have no reason to agree, and the U.S. side would inevitably hesitate to offer substantial 'gifts' such as easing sanctions on North Korea. A common ground that satisfies both North Korean and U.S. leaders must be established for a third summit to be possible.
However, it is noteworthy that the Blue House publicly expressed President Moon's determination that "progress and achievements in inter-Korean relations cannot be reversed." This signals a commitment to continue playing the role of a peace promoter on the Korean Peninsula by bridging North Korea?U.S. dialogue. There is also an interpretation that, in a situation where North Korea does not respond to President Moon's peace message, the focus is on opening a path through North Korea?U.S. dialogue rather than direct inter-Korean talks.
In this context, the itinerary of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun, who is expected to visit Korea this month, is a subject of interest. There was a report by Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun that Biegun would deliver a message from President Trump to North Korea at Panmunjom during his visit. However, Deputy Secretary Biegun has expressed skepticism about the possibility of a North Korea?U.S. summit before the U.S. presidential election. This shows a temperature difference compared to the Blue House's 'sympathy' message.
The variable is the political reality faced by President Trump. Amid overlapping political setbacks, polls show that President Trump is trailing in all six major 'swing states' for the U.S. presidential election. If he fails to secure a momentum for reversal before the Republican and Democratic party conventions, he could be swept away by the 'election current' and lose without even trying.
If the third North Korea?U.S. summit is realized, it could instantly capture the world's attention, and if it leads to an agreement beyond expectations, it could translate into a political achievement for President Trump.
Chairman Kim's situation is also not simple. Senior Research Fellow Juhanbeom Cho at the Korea Institute for National Unification assessed, "Chairman Kim needs economic achievements this year to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the party, but he has achieved nothing so far." Whether the North Korea and U.S. leaders will agree to a third summit remains to be seen, but it is expected that they will at least agree on the need to prevent further deterioration of the situation.
Meanwhile, Moon Jung-in, Special Advisor to the President for Unification, Foreign Affairs, and National Security, analyzed at a forum hosted by the Korea Press Foundation on the same day, "(Currently for Korea) there are options to either manage the current situation stably, improve it drastically even at political cost, or go head-to-head," adding, "Which option to choose depends on President Moon."
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