[Work Revolution] Futurist Jason Schenker "Space Matters More Than Workplace Proximity... Urban Housing Prices Will Also Decline"

Schenger, Bloomberg's Top Forecast Expert
World No.1 in 25 out of 43 Evaluation Criteria

Remote Work Enhances Workers' Lives
Reduced Commute Time, More Family Time
Expansion of Online Education, Polarization of Universities

US-China Conflict Intensifies and Commercial Real Estate Collapse
Worst Scenario Since COVID-19

Jason Schenker, Chairman of Prestige Economics and Futurist Institute (Provided by the individual)

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] One undeniable fact realized amid the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic is that life will never be the same as before. Everyone senses that a new era is approaching amid an uncertain future. What should we prepare for a better future? It has been over 100 days since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared.

Jason Schenker, a futurist and chairman of Prestige Economics and the Futurist Institute, predicted in a written interview with Asia Economy on the 26th that workers' lives will become more enriched due to the increase in remote work after COVID-19. He also forecasted changes not only in human relationships at work and home but also in spaces such as cities and housing. He emphasized the need for preparation in education as automation rapidly progresses and job changes are expected. He predicted that the expansion of remote work will increase labor market fluidity. He identified the escalating US-China conflict and the plummeting prices of commercial real estate as the biggest risks after COVID-19.

Schenker is recognized as one of the top forecasting experts selected by Bloomberg based on 43 evaluation criteria. He ranked first globally in 25 categories, including the euro, British pound, crude oil prices, gold prices, agricultural product prices, and US employment. His books include "Robot-Proof Yourself" and "Recession-Proof." His recent book, "The Future After COVID," has been translated and published in Korea, becoming a bestseller.

Below is a Q&A from the written interview with Chairman Schenker.

- Your book "The Future After COVID" is very popular in Korea. It calmly covers forecasts across all fields such as jobs, education, environment, economy, and media amid an unfamiliar and confusing future. What was the main focus when writing the book?

▲ Most of my clients, who are companies, were trying to figure out what would happen after COVID-19. I wrote the book to help them plan for the future. Considering the current situation, I had to work quickly. The most important part when writing the book was identifying the risks, scenarios, and opportunities most likely to be affected by the pandemic. This included examining evolutions and new past trends already underway and ready to accelerate due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the subsequent economic shutdown, and recovery.

- Personally, how have you been living since the COVID-19 outbreak?

▲ I have been similar to many people living in Austin, Texas, during the pandemic. A month before the outbreak, I was at home in Austin with my wife and our adopted dog. Sometimes we worried about food and ordered everything online. We still rarely leave the house. Some of this is due to concern, and some is due to new habits. In some ways, our experience with the pandemic has been unusual.

- Based on the current COVID-19 situation, what do you think is the worst-case scenario imaginable after the pandemic?

▲ There are two worst-case scenarios. One is the deepening conflict between China and the United States, and the other is the large downside risk in commercial real estate.

- Will remote work enable workers to lead more enriched lives?

▲ Generally, I believe remote work will improve people's lives because it reduces commuting time and increases time spent with family at home. Almost every parent with children will try harder to balance home and work life than parents without children. Most people can reclaim a lot of time previously spent in cars or public transportation. Of course, many people cannot work from home. In such cases, they may benefit from commuting during off-peak hours as many others work remotely.

Jason Schenker, Chairman of Prestige Economics and Futurist Institute (Provided by the individual)

- Korea experienced its first-ever online school opening at the end of April. What do you expect future schools to look like?

▲ The future of education will likely differ in many ways. Most importantly, for those with internet and computer access, the potential for education will likely increase as costs decrease. Physical schools may disappear in many cases. In my previous book "Jobs For Robots," I mentioned that some university campuses might become like movie studio backlight tours?places where people do not learn but where students' learning locations are filmed. The future could be quite polarized. Some elite universities will still charge very high fees for unique in-person experiences. However, other universities will compete to provide remote services to the public at mid-range prices.

AI and Automation Replace Human Jobs
Remote Work Creates a Fluid Labor Market

- Seoul has some of the highest real estate prices in the world. Will housing prices or rents really fall?

▲ I have worked as an economist and financial market analyst for over 15 years, and throughout that time, one thing has proven true above all else: arbitrage has value. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, space may become more important than proximity to work. Ultimately, if people no longer need to commute to work, proximity to work becomes less important than space in financial transactions. While the convenience of proximity in high-density urban living may be lost in exchange for the space convenience offered by suburbs, it does not mean the city ends. It just means that people's interest in suburbs and the value and cost of suburbs could rise significantly. This implies that urban housing prices may stagnate or decline. For example, New York and Silicon Valley in the US could face considerable pressure. Conversely, cities like Austin or Charlotte (which are relatively cheaper) are likely to attract some residents from other cities. Overall, suburban areas across cities may see a revival. In Korea, a dynamic could emerge where small and medium-sized cities attract talent from Seoul. And suburban areas nationwide could become more attractive than they have been in decades.

- In Korea, there is talk that the era of a "big government" has returned due to COVID-19. Is it right to head toward a big government in the current situation? And how might this phenomenon affect the future?

▲ Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, recently said roughly that now is not the time for fiscal conservatism but for economic revival. As an economist, I consider myself fiscally conservative. Nevertheless, I agree with Chairman Powell on this point. When the economy is in crisis, it is not the time for government retrenchment. Now is the time to revive the economy, no matter how necessary fiscal conservatism might be. The time for government retrenchment is when the economy is at its peak.

- Do you think technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) can replace human jobs?

▲ Automation can replace jobs. In the future, debates and support for this will increase. In some industries like supply chains and e-commerce, AI and automation have become important for handling volumes that humans cannot manage. I expect productivity to improve further through automation in the future. The best approach is to get more education, enter "robot-proof" fields that are not easily replaced by automation, or directly participate in the future of technology and innovation.

On the 9th, when nationwide middle and high schools started online classes beginning with 3rd-year high school and 3rd-year middle school students, a teacher is conducting an online class in a classroom at Seoul Girls' High School in Mapo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

- There are two analyses regarding COVID-19: one that social (human) relationships are heading toward disintegration, and another that paradoxically, their importance will be rediscovered. Which do you agree with more?

▲ Remote work certainly increases distance and can cause some alienation among colleagues. It also poses the risk that companies may be less hesitant to lay off people they have not seen in person. Conversely, it means that people can also quit more easily if they feel they are not treated properly. More remote work is likely to create a more fluid labor market for both employers and employees. Family relationships are related to housing issues. If your home has enough space, working from home or living in isolation may not have been unpleasant. But if there is not enough space for everyone in the home, it can cause tense relationships. I know many families whose bonds have deepened after the COVID-19 experience. Conversely, I also know many families under stress. The difference is largely related to the availability of personal space.

- Could advanced countries be reshaped after COVID-19? Do you expect the relationship between China and the US to recover anytime soon?

▲ Tensions between the US and China are expected to escalate. Their power competition is inevitable. The US is likely to oppose China's tendency to pursue economic, political, trade, technological, and military hegemony in Asia, especially Southeast Asia. I see this as a proxy war pattern, so I do not expect it to escalate to a war issue anytime soon. The trade war pattern is expected to continue.