[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] North Korea Begins DMZ Maintenance Activities This Month... Movements Have Started

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] North Korea appears to be starting full-scale movements centered on the front-line areas. From this month, they need to repair front-line guard facilities in preparation for the summer rainy season and rotate personnel at guard posts (GP) from next month, which could be a pretext for military provocations.

The General Staff of the Korean People's Army declared the restoration of the front-line GPs in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that were withdrawn as a trial and the resumption of military exercises in the West Sea. In particular, they announced that the alert level (combat readiness) on all fronts would be raised to the "No. 1 Combat Duty System."

North Korea first used the term "No. 1 Combat Duty System" in 2013. It has resurfaced after seven years. However, the units ordered to enter the "No. 1 Combat Duty System" differ from those in 2013. In 2013, North Korea announced under the name of the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army that strategic missile units and long-range artillery units would enter the "No. 1 Combat Duty System." But on the 17th, a spokesperson for the General Staff said that the units being elevated to the No. 1 Combat Duty System are across the entire front. In particular, they mentioned, "We will strengthen the combat duty shifts of artillery units deployed on all fronts, including the southwestern maritime front." Unlike the situation in 2013 when they were focused on ballistic missile development, this indicates a significant strengthening of military actions in the front-line areas.

In fact, last June, the North Korean military continued repair work on facilities such as fences and foxholes in the DMZ to prepare for the rainy season. This is essential because GP personnel must be rotated in July. Including posts without stationed guards, our military operates about 80 GPs near the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), while North Korea operates about 150 civil guard posts. On the afternoon of the 17th, North Korean guards were observed by military authorities moving between previously vacant civil guard posts in the northern area, conducting rotational duty. Civil guard posts are conceptually the same as our GPs. The military authorities are currently determining whether these movements by the North Korean military are for military actions or personnel rotations.

Since North Korea announced it would strengthen combat duty shifts on the southwestern maritime front, it is expected to increase training centered on the West Sea. In June 2018, North Korea conducted sea firing exercises with patrol ships and infiltration training near the base of the West Sea underwater brigade. Especially with the crab fishing season increasing the number of fishing boats between the South and North, military tensions are inevitably rising. There is a possibility that North Korea will provoke by repositioning coastal artillery and conducting firing exercises.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "North Korea has carried out provocations that are difficult to attribute to a specific attacker, as seen in the Cheonan incident and mine provocations, aiming for shock effects through surprise attacks. It seems that military actions to nullify the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement will occur first, and it is important to establish thorough readiness to prevent surprise provocations thereafter."