[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Will North Korea Shoot at Anti-North Leaflets Again This Time?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] Military authorities are once again on edge over the leaflet campaigns against North Korea. North Korea has demanded that the South stop defector groups from distributing leaflets to the North, even mentioning the possibility of nullifying the September 19 military agreement, raising concerns that the situation of 2014 might be repeated.

According to the military on the 4th, North Korea fired about ten rounds of 14.5mm anti-personnel guns at leaflets balloons launched by our civilian groups in Yeoncheon, Gyeonggi Province on October 10, 2014. Some of the projectiles fell on our side. The last armed clash with North Korean troops in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) was a firefight at a guard post (GP) in Hwacheon, Gangwon Province in October 2010, and it had been over four years since North Korean bullets fell in areas inhabited by our civilians, following the Yeonpyeong Island shelling provocation in November 2010, heightening military tensions to the extreme.

At that time, after confirming that North Korean bullets had fallen in our territory, our military broadcast six warnings to the North starting at 5:30 p.m., and from around 5:40 p.m., fired about 40 rounds of 12.7mm K-6 machine gun rounds in response at nearby North Korean GPs. About ten minutes after our counterfire, at around 5:50 p.m., gunfire and small arms bullets were observed flying over our GP from the North side, and in response, we fired about ten rounds of small arms back at the enemy GP area, the military stated. To prepare for further provocations, the military also issued the 'Jindo Dog One' alert, a local provocation warning, to units in the Yeoncheon area at 6:10 p.m. that day.

North Korea has again demanded that the South stop defector groups from distributing leaflets to the North, making this issue a critical variable in inter-Korean relations. The government finds itself in a difficult position because the 'cessation of leaflet distribution' violates the inter-Korean agreement between the leaders contained in the Panmunjom Declaration of April 27, 2018. Article 2, Clause 1 of the Panmunjom Declaration, agreed upon by the South and North Korean leaders, states that "all hostile acts including loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflet distribution in the military demarcation line area shall cease and the means thereof shall be dismantled."

However, leaflet distribution is a matter of freedom of expression and cannot be forcibly banned. In the past, there were discussions about enacting a so-called 'law banning leaflet distribution to North Korea,' but it inevitably raised constitutional issues and was a matter with stark differences between conservatives and progressives, making its passage difficult. President Moon Jae-in, when he was a lawmaker in November 2014, also proposed a 'resolution urging the cessation of leaflet distribution to North Korea' with fellow lawmakers. Later, in 2018, an amendment to the Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation Act was proposed to require prior approval from the Minister of Unification before distributing leaflets to North Korea, but it did not pass.

Currently, the military authorities operate emergency response teams in nearby division-level units when they receive information about leaflet distribution, monitoring the quantity of leaflets and North Korean movements using thermal imaging equipment (TOD). Units below the division level have strengthened their readiness to prepare for any possible North Korean military actions.

A military official said, "When defector groups distribute leaflets, nearby units closely monitor North Korea's military response," adding, "Especially in the frontline areas, tensions are inevitable."