[Opinion] Korea Now Boldly Entering the Tiger's Den

Professor Hwang Jae-ho, School of International Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

President Moon Jae-in responded positively to the invitation to attend the G11 summit, which added four countries including South Korea to the Group of Seven (G7) led by U.S. President Donald Trump on the 1st. As the Blue House spokesperson briefed, this signifies that South Korea is becoming one of the leading countries guiding the world. If the G11 is actually established, South Korea will participate in the highest-level global governance outside of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, making its voice clearly heard on the international stage.

President Moon stated that he would contribute to discussions on quarantine and the economy at the G11 meeting, which is a tailored role. What the participating countries want to hear from South Korea is its quarantine experience. However, going beyond K-quarantine, proposing a comprehensive package K-model including human security cooperation and post-COVID economic and social recovery would have a greater impact.

Above all, South Korea’s participation in the G11 boosts Trump’s prestige. While most participating countries were reluctant, President Moon readily agreed to attend. Immediately, Trump’s favorability toward President Moon rises. No U.S. administration before Trump showed such interest in the Korean Peninsula issue. This creates an opportunity to push forward our North Korea policy in some way.

The U.S. is currently reshuffling the existing order it established. Previously, there was at least a semblance of 'participation together,' but the future Trump-style new order is qualitatively different. Including the G11, many governance bodies will become organizations that must 'follow' the U.S. based strictly on America First.

The biggest characteristic of the G11 is the exclusion of China. The economic version of the Indo-Pacific strategy, the Economic Prosperity Network (EPN), and the quarantine version, Quad Plus (QUAD+), are the same. The U.S. initially faced China alone in the 2018 trade war, gradually mobilized allies, and now employs a three-stage tactic to pressure China comprehensively in the international community. South Korea’s invitation seems more about deploying it on the anti-China front than inviting it as a successful democratic case with significant quarantine achievements.

However, whether the G11 will actually be formed remains to be seen. The G11 may have been an impromptu idea after Germany declined to participate. It is also questionable whether President Trump’s sudden mention of Brazil was originally planned. The number G11 or G12 seems to depend on Russia’s participation. If Russia does not participate, all G11 members will be democratic countries. Along with China, Russia will be pushed out of the G11, effectively forming a 'new Cold War' camp.

There are concerns about China’s backlash against South Korea’s participation in the G11. South Korea, inevitably conscious of China, faces a heavy burden. However, this worry is premature. Except for the U.S., none of the participating countries will take the frontline against China. Our realistic approach regarding China at the G11 meeting is cautious participation.

Meanwhile, China also finds it difficult to openly express hostility toward South Korea. The current intense confrontation between the U.S. and China makes it hard to expand the front lines. China’s recent restraint in reacting to the replacement of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) equipment is seen as a result of U.S. efforts to drive a wedge between South Korea and China. Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming recently emphasized in an interview that President Xi Jinping’s visit to South Korea will not be delayed beyond this year, and that South Korea-China relations will grow explosively thereafter.

In July 2017, the Korean saying of the great Han general Han Xin, 'Gwaha Jiyok (跨下之辱, enduring immediate humiliation for a greater cause),' was widely referenced domestically. It meant that President Moon was enduring hardship under the U.S. for national interest. Now, about three years later, the situation has completely changed. South Korea has crawled out from under the U.S. and is boldly entering the tiger’s den to catch the tiger. Regardless of how the G11 unfolds, South Korea has now emerged as an indispensable leading country on the international stage.