[COVID-19 Transformation] The Next Election... The New 50s Centered on Family and Society Will Decide

On the 15th, the ballot boxes arrived at the counting center set up at the multipurpose badminton gymnasium in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, where the 21st National Assembly elections were held. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporters Kang Nahum and Won Dara] The 21st general election, which gave the Democratic Party of Korea a historic high of 177 seats, is analyzed as having been decided by the choice of voters in their 50s. Inside and outside the political sphere, there is a consensus that in the next election, the votes of the '586 generation' (those born in the 1960s who attended university in the 1980s, now in their 50s), who emphasize 'pragmatism,' will again determine the outcome. The recent rise of 'centrist pragmatism' as a major political theme across party lines is also closely related to this.

During the 4.15 general election, political attention inevitably focused on the voting sentiment of those in their 50s. This is because they represent the largest number of voters by generation (8.65 million) and have historically played the role of a 'casting vote' in elections. The importance of the 50s vote is also deeply connected to the aging society. The generation in their 50s, who experienced democratization struggles, has now entered this age group, while the previously conservative-leaning 50s have moved into their 60s. Ultimately, with the 586 generation emerging as the mainstream of the 50s, the direction of voting sentiment has changed from the past.

The decisive battleground in the last two presidential elections was also the 50s age group. The progressive-leaning 20s to 40s consistently supported candidate Moon Jae-in. Those aged 60 and above, with strong conservative tendencies, tended to vote for conservative party candidates (Park Geun-hye, Hong Joon-pyo). Meanwhile, the 50s shifted their votes from conservative party candidates to progressive party candidates over the two elections. Thus, the voting sentiment of those in their 50s emerged as the 'smoking gun' deciding the outcome in all elections, including the two presidential races.

In the recent general election, the voting sentiment of those in their 50s was crucial in making the Democratic Party a 'super party.' According to exit polls by the three major terrestrial broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) for the 4.15 election, 34.3% of voters in their 50s supported the Future Korea Party, a satellite party of the United Future Party, in the proportional representation vote. The Democratic Party's satellite party, the Together Citizens' Party, received 32.3% support. At first glance, it seemed the two parties received similar support from voters in their 50s, but the story changes when looking at the entire camp. Combining the support rates for the Democratic Party, the Justice Party (12.0%), and the Open Democratic Party (4.9%), nearly half (49.2%) of voters in their 50s chose the progressive side. This translated directly into seats. The Democratic Party, combined with the Citizens' Party, became a super party with 177 seats, while the United Future Party (including the Korea Party seats) secured only 103 seats. This created a playing field sharply tilted toward progressives.

It is difficult to simply calculate the voting sentiment of those in their 50s based solely on political leanings. Their social position and roles must also be considered. Recently, there is growing analysis that the 50s generation is a pragmatic group capable of making practical choices beyond the constraints of conservative and progressive camps. They tend to focus more on pragmatic choices between being the 'head of the household' and the 'mainstream' in society.

In fact, those in their 50s are in a social position that makes them highly sensitive to economic and livelihood issues, and they show great interest in the theme of 'fairness' as they experience their children's college entrance exams. This means they tend to act pragmatically by looking at pledges or policies rather than ideology. Especially during the 'Cho Kuk incident' in August last year, the approval rating of President Moon Jae-in among voters in their 50s plummeted to the 30% range. This shows that those in their 50s do not give unconditional support to progressive parties. Another characteristic of the 50s is that they are less swayed by ideology compared to younger generations. As social experience accumulates, their criteria for evaluating politics tend to be multidimensional rather than simplistic. Particularly, as the 50s are a generation preparing for retirement, they tend to shift from collective to individual perspectives.

On the 15th, after the voting for the 21st National Assembly election ended, Lee Hae-chan, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Lee Nak-yeon, chairman of the Democratic Party's election committee, shook hands at the election situation room set up in the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "Demographically, those in their 50s are a complex generation. Depending on the political situation and party evaluations at the time, they can vote for either side as swing voters," adding, "They saw the Democratic Party as much more pragmatic and capable in governance, and given the behavior of the two parties so far, the Democratic Party inevitably had a comparative advantage."

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has been a major catalyst for the 50s to make 'pragmatic choices.' It is interpreted as a 'pragmatic choice' to allow the Moon Jae-in government, together with a strong ruling party, to accomplish the urgent national crisis tasks. Immediate concerns about the safety, life, livelihood, and employment of their own families became the most important indicators.

With about 1 year and 10 months left until the presidential election, both ruling and opposition parties must properly understand and analyze the psychology and aspirations of voters in their 50s to win their support. Director Um pointed out, "Those in their 50s are the generation responsible for our economy and are the first to be hit when the economic situation worsens," emphasizing, "A new strategy walking a pragmatic path beyond ideological debates must be established."