[Elephant①] Japan's Abe, obsessed with the Olympics, faces crisis... Neither mask nor wife helps

Leaders trapped by Corona. As the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis prolongs, we focus on global leaders who have sparked controversy due to delayed responses and inappropriate conduct or remarks. We examine the impact of undesirable responses during a crisis when leadership is most needed, and anticipate the trajectories of leaders whose positions are shaken as well as political changes in various countries.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] "I want to overcome the spread of COVID-19 and safely hold the Olympics as scheduled." (March 14)

"The Tokyo Olympics cannot be held in its complete form while the situation is not resolved." (April 29)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe completely reversed his stance in about 40 days. During that time, the Tokyo Olympics were postponed by one year, the spread of COVID-19 within Japan became more pronounced, and Prime Minister Abe declared a state of emergency, expanding the targeted regions. Sudden daily policy announcements and implementations such as school closures and mask distributions revealed problems of poor communication and inadequate preparation, causing Abe's approval ratings to plummet sharply.

During the same period, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan surged from 780 to 13,852 according to World Health Organization (WHO) standards. This figure excludes 712 confirmed cases on the cruise ship "Diamond Princess," which was called the "death cruise" due to the Japanese government's inadequate response in February. The Abe Cabinet, which had been eager to hold the Tokyo Olympics as scheduled until about 40 days ago, is now struggling to contain the spread of COVID-19 amid criticism of "delayed response" and the looming collapse of the medical system.

◆ Suspicion of reduced testing before the Olympics... Cancellation talks arise after postponement = The Tokyo Olympics held special significance for Prime Minister Abe. Not only had he invested effort since the bidding stage, but as a long-term incumbent, it was a major event that could become his greatest political legacy. It was expected to provide momentum to extend his term as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president, which ends next September. His determination to hold the Tokyo Olympics was strong, and until mid-last month, the Abe Cabinet repeatedly denied the possibility of postponement.

Earlier, in February, suspicions arose in Japan that the government was reducing COVID-19 testing due to concerns about the Olympics. On March 3, the Honkeizai Shimbun pointed out that although the Japanese government could conduct 3,800 tests per day, only about 900 tests were being performed daily on average. In fact, after the decision to postpone the Olympics, the number of COVID-19 tests in Japan increased significantly. According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the number of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests rose from 44,562 between February 18 and March 24 to 205,992 between March 25 and April 27.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

However, on April 24, the Abe administration finally postponed the Olympics. Even when 70% of Japanese voters said the Olympics could not be held as scheduled, Abe did not waver in his determination, but as COVID-19 spread to Europe and the United States, external factors forced the postponement decision. At that time, Yoshiro Mori, chairman of the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee, proposed a two-year postponement plan, but Abe insisted on holding the event within one year, saying, "Japan's technological capabilities have not declined. We must also consider the political schedule," and pushed ahead.

As a result, a month later, the possibility of cancellation is emerging. On April 28, Chairman Mori stated, "If COVID-19 is not over by next summer, the Tokyo Olympics will be canceled," firmly ruling out further postponement. The next day, April 29, Prime Minister Abe himself mentioned that the end of COVID-19 would be a prerequisite for holding the Tokyo Olympics, which had been postponed to July next year.

◆ Late response also controversial... 'Abenomask' problems continue = After postponing the Olympics, the Abe Cabinet hurriedly introduced COVID-19 countermeasures. Amid criticism of "delayed response," the government's measures caused confusion. Although confirmed COVID-19 cases are pouring in nationwide, medical facilities and equipment are grossly insufficient for testing and treatment, putting the medical system at risk of collapse and increasing public anxiety.

The most controversial measure was Prime Minister Abe's "Abenomask." As the spread of COVID-19 accelerated after the Olympics postponement, the government decided to distribute two masks per household to prevent mask shortages. However, within days, problems such as defective masks arose, leading to the recall of distributed masks. The masks were too small, and some were found to have dust, mold, or insects. Among the Japanese public, a mocking neologism "Abenomask," a pun on "Abenomics," emerged for these reasons.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Additionally, the nationwide cash payment plan caused confusion. Initially, the government proposed paying 300,000 yen to households whose income sharply declined, but there were criticisms about the difficulty of setting criteria. Eventually, the coalition partner Komeito Party re-proposed a uniform payment of 100,000 yen per person, which was accepted citing the expansion of the state of emergency areas, and the supplementary budget was reorganized.

On April 17, Prime Minister Abe said, "I take full responsibility for the confusion caused and sincerely apologize to the people." He also expressed deep regret as prime minister over the shortage of masks, goggles, and protective clothing in medical settings. However, criticism of the Japanese government's confusing response continues, and public opinion toward Abe is turning negative.

◆ Red light for next year's reappointment... Controversies over Abe and his wife’s conduct = Prime Minister Abe faces a test in responding to COVID-19. Leadership is crucial in a crisis like COVID-19, but his conduct so far has been controversial. According to a public opinion poll reported by the Asahi Shimbun on April 21, 57% of 1,111 Japanese voters said "Prime Minister Abe is not demonstrating leadership." More than half gave negative evaluations of the COVID-19 response so far.

This criticism appears to be influenced by controversies involving Abe and his wife Akie during the COVID-19 crisis. On April 12, Abe posted an edited video on social media showing him relaxing at home with his pet dog, urging people to stay home. However, this was criticized as inappropriate during the state of emergency, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga explained it was intended to send a message to young people.

Mrs. Akie (right in the photo) in a group photo taken during a trip to Oita on the 15th of last month. (Source: Friday screen capture)

Akie Abe also faced controversy for group travel during the COVID-19 spread. Shortly after being criticized for a group photo taken during cherry blossom viewing last month, it was revealed that on April 15, she visited a shrine with about 50 people. This trip occurred the day after Prime Minister Abe requested citizens to refrain from going out, and photos showing her without a mask during the trip were released, drawing public backlash.

These controversies are expected to affect Abe's bid to extend his term as LDP president. The Asahi Shimbun reported on April 28 that in a political awareness poll of 3,000 Japanese voters, 66% opposed Abe's extension as LDP president. In the same survey, more than half expressed a desire for the next prime minister to take a different path from the Abe Cabinet. Earlier, on April 14, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Abe Cabinet's approval rating was 42%, down 6 percentage points from the previous survey. The proportion of "support" responses falling below "do not support" (47%) was the first time in about two years.