U.S. Officials Skeptical of Kim Jong-un Abnormality Rumors
Experts: "Must Prepare for Worst-Case Scenario"
"Need to Resolve ROK-U.S. Defense Cost Dispute and U.S.-China COVID-19 Tensions"
[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] U.S. government authorities have reaffirmed their stance that rumors regarding North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un's health issues are "mere speculation." However, voices calling for strengthened cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and China to prepare for any eventuality continue, along with ongoing analyses about the possibility of Kim Yo-jong, the first deputy director of the Workers' Party, assuming power in the event of Kim Jong-un's incapacitation.
On the 26th (local time), The Washington Post (WP), citing three U.S. government officials, reported that South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies remain skeptical about rumors of Kim Jong-un's death or critical condition. Newsweek also reported that an anonymous senior U.S. Department of Defense official stated, "We have not obtained additional information to assess the situation of North Korean leadership or Kim Jong-un's health, nor have we seen any signs of such."
The Associated Press (AP) also conveyed that a U.S. government official said the "U.S. assessment that the information about Kim Jong-un's health is mere speculation has not changed." U.S. media also notably reported that Moon Chung-in, the South Korean president's special advisor on unification, diplomacy, and security, strongly denied the death rumors of Kim Jong-un in an interview with Fox News.
Among senior U.S. officials, the only one giving weight to the possibility of Kim Jong-un's death is Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of former President Donald Trump. He remarked, "I would be more surprised to hear that Kim Jong-un is alive or not incapacitated."
Although the confusion seems to be subsiding beneath the surface, there are calls to prepare for any situation. Sumi Terry, a prominent Korea expert and researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argued that "Kim Jong-un's incapacitation would be the first case in North Korean history without a successor," emphasizing the need to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
In her WP op-ed that day, she expressed concern that "if the situation in North Korea spirals into extreme chaos due to Kim Jong-un's incapacitation, cooperation with South Korea and China will be crucial, but the U.S. government is currently not in that position." She pointed out that defense cost-sharing negotiations with South Korea and trade disputes with China, compounded by conflicts arising from the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), are serious issues.
Researcher Terry stressed, "Even if nothing happens to Kim Jong-un, the North Korean regime is expected to be impacted," adding, "A North Korean version of 'Game of Thrones' could unfold, and winter could come sooner than anyone expects," urging thorough preparation.
Speculation about the 'post-Kim Jong-un' era is also spreading. Ana Fifield, Beijing bureau chief for WP and author of Kim Jong-un's biography "The Great Successor," evaluated, "Although there are doubts about Kim Yo-jong's possibility of assuming power because she is a woman, there is no alternative." Bloomberg News also analyzed that Kim Yo-jong is the most knowledgeable about power among the Baekdu bloodline, making her succession highly likely. They forecast that Kim Jong-un's older brother Kim Jong-chol and uncle Kim Pyong-il have little chance of assuming power as they have never been involved in governance.
Regarding this, researcher Terry predicted, "Kim Yo-jong could directly succeed power, but aside from the Kim family, Choe Ryong-hae, the first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission, could seize power."
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