Diverging Opinions on Kim Jong-un's Status: "We Must Trust the Government's Judgment" vs. "Something Is Definitely Strange" (Comprehensive)

Expert Meeting of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs Committee
Chairman Yoon Sang-hyun: "If not out within ten days, health issues are certain"

Yoon Sang-hyun, Chairman of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, and opposition party members of the committee held a meeting on the 22nd in the committee chairman's office regarding rumors about the health of Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, and the special agreement on the South Korea-US defense cost-sharing. The meeting was attended by Yoo Dae-jong, Director General of Planning and Coordination at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Lee Sang-min, Director General of Planning and Coordination at the Ministry of Unification. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] As the government stated that there are "no unusual developments" regarding the condition of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, Yoon Sang-hyun, chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, raised suspicions by saying, "If Chairman Kim does not appear within 10 days, the rumors of illness will become a fait accompli." Experts were divided, with some saying, "We should trust the government's judgment," while others called the health rumors "a reasonable suspicion."

On the 27th, Chairman Yoon held a briefing at the National Assembly main building and said, "Looking at Kim Jong-un's recent movements, there have only been routine and ceremonial orders, with no direct signing or personnel-related policy decisions."

He added, "In the past two weeks, after Kim chaired the last meeting of the Workers' Party Political Bureau, there have been no movements from other key figures," and said, "There could be speculation that they are all in Wonsan." He also pointed out that Kim's absence from the Supreme People's Assembly delegate meeting on the 12th and the Day of the Sun event on the 15th, as well as the recent lockdown of Pyongyang, are unusual developments.

Chairman Yoon emphasized, "A North Korean human rights organization flew drones from Paju on the 9th to distribute leaflets over Pyongyang," and said, "In the past, whenever leaflets were distributed from Paju, there was immediate condemnation from the North, but there has been no reaction so far, which is unusual," supporting such speculation.

He continued, "The U.S. Congress passed a financial sanctions bill, but there has been no response, and despite ongoing rumors about the death of the supreme leader, there has been no reaction at all," adding, "Personnel matters, inter-Korean issues, and U.S. relations are all under Kim's decision-making authority, so this suggests he is not performing normal duties."

Chairman Yoon pointed out, "It is possible to infer that normal duties have not been carried out since April 12," and said, "If no movements are reported within ten days, the illness rumors will grow stronger and likely become accepted as fact." He added, "If this fact is reported internally in North Korea, there will be internal unrest, so it should surface within a week to ten days. Otherwise, there is a problem."

He also stressed that the attitude of Chinese authorities regarding the 'dispatch of medical personnel' supports this. Chairman Yoon said, "Regarding foreign media reports that China sent medical personnel to North Korea, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has neither clearly denied nor acknowledged it but has ignored the issue," adding, "If it were not true, China would clearly say so, as is their style."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Experts attending the briefing that day expressed differing opinions. Yoo Dong-yeol, president of the Free Democracy Institute, said, "Only a handful of people know the truth about the rumors of Kim's condition," and added, "The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command and the National Intelligence Service are checking for unusual signs on a war checklist, such as increased wireless signals or military deployments to the front lines, but none of these signs have appeared," supporting the government's stance.

Kim Yong-hyun, former Operations Headquarters chief at the Ministry of National Defense Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, "Until North Korea officially announces something, there are objective facts here and there, but they are more like estimates than confirmed realities," but added, "However, the health rumors are a reasonable suspicion. Even if he is alive, it is estimated he may not last long."

There was also speculation that even if the rumors about his condition are true, there would be little impact domestically. Lee Yong-jun, former deputy minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, assumed Kim's incapacitation and said, "Whether the Baekdu bloodline succeeds to power or a non-Baekdu faction seizes control, the internal situation in North Korea will inevitably be unstable," adding, "In that case, due to internal chaos, they may refrain from large-scale military provocations and the new leader might cautiously pursue reform and opening policies."

Chairman Yoon also expressed skepticism about the National Intelligence Service's intelligence capabilities. He said, "When former National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke, Intelligence Committee Chairman Choi Byung-guk even reported that 'he collapsed but still brushed his teeth,'" and added, "But recently, at a meeting with the NIS chief and North Korea-related officials, I asked if anyone knew about Kim Jong-un imitating his grandfather's voice, and no one knew."

Meanwhile, the government maintained its position that there are no unusual developments as of that day. According to JoongAng Ilbo, Kim Yeon-chul, Minister of Unification, attended the 'Korea-China Vision Forum' hosted by the Korea Peninsula Peace Initiative on the 26th and reaffirmed the stance, saying, "I can confidently say there are no unusual developments." On the other hand, Baek Seung-joo, a member of the Future Korea Party regarded as a 'North Korea expert,' gave weight to the suspicions, saying on YTN Radio's 'No Young-hee's Start Morning,' "When former State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il died in 2011, our government also said there were 'no unusual developments.'"