[Politics, That Day...] Why Did the River of Public Sentiment That Delivered 'Conservative 200 Seats' Change?

2008 18th General Election: Two-Thirds of Elected National Assembly Members Were Conservative... Regaining Power 9 Years After Democratic Party's Defeat

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] ‘Politics, On That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Has public sentiment really changed? This is a question surrounding election voting intentions. The 180 seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea and the Together Citizens' Party represent a historic record when considering the number of seats held by a single party in political history. Some interpret this as a shift in the ideological front of South Korea, claiming that the era of conservatism has ended.

However, looking back at the results of the 18th general election in 2008, the story changes. At that time, the number of conservative-leaning lawmakers elected exceeded 200. The Grand National Party secured 153 seats, the Liberty Forward Party 18 seats, and the Pro-Park Alliance 14 seats. In addition to 185 seats, a large number of conservative-leaning independent candidates were also elected.

These include lawmakers such as Yoo Ki-joon, Kim Moo-sung, Lee Jin-bok, Yoo Jae-joong, and Kim Se-yeon from Busan; Lee Hae-bong from Daegu; Lee Kyung-jae from Incheon; Han Sun-kyo from Gyeonggi Province; Choi Yeon-hee from Gangwon Province; Lee In-je from Chungnam; Kim Tae-hwan, Lee In-gi, Jeong Hae-geol, Kim Kwang-rim, and Seong Yun-hwan from Gyeongbuk; and Choi Gu-sik from Gyeongnam. Including conservative-leaning independents, the number of elected lawmakers in the 18th general election exceeded 200.

The 18th general election held shortly after President Lee Myung-bak's inauguration resulted in a devastating defeat for the United Democratic Party. The Grand National Party barely surpassed the majority with 153 seats, but the total number of conservative-leaning lawmakers, politically classified as a friendly group, exceeded 200. Although not all belonged to the Grand National Party, many lawmakers shared the orientation of conservative politics.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Given that the general election was held shortly after President Lee Myung-bak's inauguration, it was somewhat expected that public support would lean toward the ruling party. Another cause of the United Democratic Party's crushing defeat was its failure to present a vision that would win the people's choice.

After the election defeat, the Democratic Party fell into a vortex of confusion. In the 18th National Assembly, the Democratic Party held only 81 seats. It produced 66 constituency winners and barely exceeded 80 seats including 15 proportional representation seats. Even including the Democratic Labor Party's 5 seats and the Creative Korea Party's 3 seats, the total did not surpass 90 seats.

This was far below the constitutional amendment blocking line (more than 100 seats). The reason for the United Democratic Party's defeat was the people's rejection. It failed to inspire belief that the world could be changed through the Democratic Party. The voter turnout in that election was a record low of 46.1%. Less than half of the population voted, and the Democratic Party suffered a historic defeat.

Has the current of public sentiment, which elected over 200 conservative-leaning lawmakers in 2008, changed after 12 years? This is a point to consider in relation to the results of the 21st general election.

To conclude, it is difficult to say that the ideological landscape of voters has fundamentally changed. The proportional representation vote share for the Future Korea Party was 33.84%, and for the Together Citizens' Party, it was 33.35%. Although the Democratic Party asked for proportional seats to be concentrated on the Together Citizens' Party, it did not reach the vote share of the Future Korea Party.

Vote splitting toward the Justice Party and the Open Democratic Party was also a factor. However, it is notable that public opinion did not rapidly swing toward any particular party or ideology. Although the conservative-leaning parties performed poorly, it is premature to directly link this to the collapse of conservative politics.

However, it has been proven that relying on past political styles to win public sentiment has its limits. The problem lies in the fact that the model the Grand National Party used to regain power by raising the banner of opposition 20 years ago was simply repeated.

Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the United Future Party, is bowing his head after expressing his intention to resign as party leader, taking responsibility for the election results, at the comprehensive vote counting situation room set up in the National Assembly on the 15th. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

The United Democratic Party suffered severe internal strife after the 2008 general election. The bleak future led to fragmentation. It took longer than expected for the party to regain the people's choice after the crushing defeat.

The United Democratic Party, which produced 81 winners including constituency and proportional seats, showed its limits in the 18th National Assembly where conservative-leaning lawmakers exceeded 200. Although the party changed its leadership and approached the public with a new vision, it failed to regain power in the 2012 presidential election. The regime change occurred in 2017, nine years after the 2008 general election.

This is a point the Future United Party should reflect on. It means that moderate remodeling is unlikely to win the people's choice. The problem is that there is not much time left. Only two years remain until the presidential election and the 8th nationwide local elections.

This is not enough time to fundamentally change the party. The Future United Party attempted image changes such as renaming the party and changing its symbolic color but failed to gain the people's trust.

Will 2022, the year of the scheduled presidential election, be the time for the Future United Party? Or will it have to experience a waiting period close to a decade, as the United Democratic Party did? It is difficult to predict the outcome, but if the ruling party fails to regain trust, the waiting period is likely to be prolonged.