Proportional Vote in General Election: Mirae Hanguk 27.8%, The Simin 24.2%... Both Major Parties Rise [Realmeter]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] On the 9th, when the publication of public opinion poll results for the April 15 general election was prohibited, the last survey on the intention to vote for proportional representation parties showed a simultaneous rise in support rates for the Deobureo Civic Party and the Future Korea Party, indicating a consolidation of their support bases.

According to Realmeter's announcement on the 9th, based on a survey commissioned by tbs conducted from the 6th to the 8th on the intention to vote for proportional representation in the April 15 general election, 27.8% responded that they would vote for the Future Korea Party, and 24.2% said they would vote for the Civic Party. Compared to the previous week, the Future Korea Party's support increased by 2.8 percentage points, and the Civic Party's support rose by 2.5 percentage points.

The Future Korea Party saw a significant increase in support among its traditional base, including Daegu·Gyeongbuk (29.7%→45.6%), Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (31.2%→38.8%), Daejeon·Sejong·Chungcheong (23.3%→30.5%), people in their 50s (24.9%→29.3%), and those aged 60 and above (31.7%→35.9%).

The Civic Party also showed a clear consolidation of its support base with increases in Gyeonggi·Incheon (22.2%→27.6%), Gwangju·Jeolla (28.2%→32.3%), people in their 40s (26.3%→32.9%), 30s (23.8%→29.5%), 20s (16.9%→20.6%), and centrist voters (19.7%→23.5%).

Realmeter explained, "It is a common pattern for the undecided voters to decrease as the voting day approaches," adding, "A similar trend was observed during the last local elections."

The Open Democratic Party dropped by 2.1 percentage points to 12.3%. This is interpreted as some of the Democratic Party supporters who had backed the Open Democratic Party moving to the Civic Party. In fact, among Democratic Party supporters, those who said they would vote for the Civic Party increased by 5.1 percentage points to 48.9%, while those intending to vote for the Open Democratic Party decreased by 5.3 percentage points to 22.6%.

Additionally, the Justice Party fell by 0.4 percentage points to 8.1%, the People's Party rose by 0.6 percentage points to 5.3%, and the Minsheng Party increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0%. Other parties were below 3%.

Party support rates were as follows: Democratic Party 42.6%, United Party 30.2%, Justice Party 4.9%, People's Party 4.1%, and Minsheng Party 2.6%.

President Moon Jae-in's approval rating for his administration dropped by 1.1 percentage points from the previous week to 52.6%. Conversely, negative evaluations rose by 0.6 percentage points to 43.8%.

This survey contacted 29,843 voters aged 18 and over nationwide, with a final 1,509 respondents completing the survey, resulting in a response rate of 5.1%. The sampling error is ±2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.