[The Editors' Verdict] North Korea's Defense Technology Modernization Project

Hong Min, Director of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification

There are many puzzling aspects to North Korea's recent actions. They involve a mix of multiple rocket launchers, tactical guided weapons, statements, and letters. This is especially perplexing given that everyone is struggling with the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). To understand North Korea, it is necessary to distinguish between two dimensions: 'strategic goals' and 'phase-specific policy operations.' The former refers to long-term and practical national or governance strategies, while the latter denotes policy operations responding to various issues in different phases to achieve these goals.

Phase-specific policy operations involve 'amplitude.' For example, rapidly shifting the inter-Korean dialogue phase into a cold phase. The strategy of sudden attitude change reflects dissatisfaction with the counterpart, strong demands for what is desired, and North Korea's way of seizing the initiative. It is necessary to interpret the flow and context of a series of public actions and speech acts. What intentions are embedded in North Korea's recent moves?

First, they serve to block and justify criticism regarding weapons development. In sequence, after a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump was delivered, North Korea fired tactical guided weapons and then released a statement from Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party Central Committee. After a harsh statement toward the Blue House, they sent a letter to President Moon Jae-in and fired a super-large multiple rocket launcher a few days later. Ultimately, this shows that ties between leaders and weapons launches are separate issues. Weapons launches are routine activities within the right to self-defense and are not matters for dispute?this is the 'wedge' being driven in. Since last year, President Trump has shown a stance of not responding to North Korea's short-range missile launches, effectively granting a pardon. Kim Yo-jong's 'Blue House imbecile' remark is based on this U.S. 'tolerance.' North Korea warns South Korea for raising issues while the U.S. remains silent and intends to block future criticisms.

The important aspect is the strategic goal dimension. The new weapons launches are carried out within the strategic goal of modernizing defense technology. From 2013 to 2017, North Korea accelerated a series of intensive missile developments as part of a four-year defense technology modernization project. Three major goals were set: first, to complete new missile technology at the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) level; second, to operationalize new medium-range missiles; and third, to improve the accuracy of existing short- and medium-range missiles.

Despite sanctions against North Korea, they focused on enhancing mid- to long-range strike capabilities, culminating in the successful launch of the Hwasong-15 on November 29, 2017, and the declaration of nuclear force completion. Meanwhile, they reinforced the guidance functions of the existing short-range Scud-ER missiles and depleted stockpiled missiles scheduled for replacement. In 2014, they also conducted a salvo firing of 70 Frog missiles into the East Sea. Plans were established to develop replacement short-range tactical missiles: solid-fueled, mobile, and pull-up maneuvering close-range guided weapon systems.

At the end of 2018, North Korea-U.S. negotiations reached a deadlock. On November 18 of the same year, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, observed a test launch of a new tactical guided weapon developed by the National Defense Science Institute. The weapon was not disclosed. It is possible that North Korea decided to resume defense technology modernization at this time. Subsequent actions support this. In last year's New Year's address and April policy speech, emphasis was placed on 'improving national defense capabilities,' 'defense science,' and 'defense industry.' Since April last year, four types of new weapons have been launched a total of 18 times through this year. At the 7th Central Committee's 5th plenary meeting this year, the emergence of future strategic weapons was announced.

In conclusion, it is judged that North Korea has been promoting a 'second defense technology modernization' since last year. This involves developing alternative weapons to overcome the significant inferiority of short-range Scud missiles. South Korea's advanced air defense capabilities are also a background factor. Amid the uncertainty of this year's U.S. presidential election, North Korea is taking a wait-and-see stance that does not break the North Korea-U.S. negotiation framework and is carrying out a schedule to improve short-range conventional forces without directly provoking the U.S. during this 'dormant period.'

Hong Min, Director of North Korea Research Division, Korea Institute for National Unification