Faster Spread Than the 2009 'H1N1 Flu'
The Deadliest 'Spanish Flu' in History Took 6 Months to Become a Global Pandemic
[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) worldwide surpassed 1 million in just three months. Neither the 2009 'H1N1 influenza (swine flu)' outbreak nor the 1918 'Spanish flu,' which caused the most severe damage in history, saw a pandemic exceed 1 million cases globally within three months of the initial outbreak. If the current spread, centered on the United States and Europe, does not subside, massive damage is expected.
According to COVID-19 statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States on the 4th (local time), the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide reached 1,134,418, with 60,115 deaths reported. Since the first confirmed case was reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on December 31 last year, the global number of confirmed cases has surpassed 1 million in just three months. Among pandemics recorded in history, COVID-19 is known to be the first to spread across all continents and exceed 1 million cases within three months.
Among large-scale epidemics in the 21st century, only the 2009 swine flu pandemic exceeded 1 million cases. According to a tally published in the international academic journal PLOS ONE in 2011, the total number of swine flu cases worldwide was 1,632,258. However, it took nearly a year to surpass 1 million cases, and the global death toll was limited to about 18,000.
The temporary hospital beds at the Puckston base in Kansas, Chicago, USA, where the world's first case of the Spanish flu was confirmed on March 8, 1918 [Image source=EPA Yonhap News]
Even during the 1918 Spanish flu, the deadliest pandemic in world history, it took more than six months for the outbreak to become a full-scale global pandemic. According to the BBC, the first confirmed case of the Spanish flu was reported on March 8, 1918, at Fort Riley in Kansas, Chicago, USA, but the worldwide pandemic began in September of that year. The Spanish flu infected approximately 500 million people worldwide and caused over 50 million deaths by 1920. In Korea, which was under Japanese colonial rule at the time, the pandemic started in October 1918, infecting about 7.42 million people?roughly half of the population of 16 million?with 140,000 deaths recorded.
Smallpox, declared eradicated by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1980, was one of the most feared infectious diseases until the 1960s. In 1967 alone, when WHO launched a massive smallpox vaccination campaign, over 15 million people were infected, with more than 2 million deaths. It is estimated that over 300 million people were victims of smallpox during the 20th century, from 1900 until its eradication in 1980. The global average fatality rate exceeded 30%, and in Central and South America, where indigenous populations had no immunity to smallpox in the 16th century, over 50 million people died from the disease.
Cover of the report declaring the eradication of smallpox by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1980 [Image source= WHO website/www.who.int]
The Black Death, which most frequently appears in media and secondary works, spread across Eurasia over about seven years from 1346 to 1353 during the 14th century in medieval Europe. It is estimated that over 40 million people died in Europe alone, with more than 30 million deaths in China, totaling over 100 million deaths worldwide.
Historically, pandemics that caused significant damage occurred over long periods and tended to spread from one country or region to others. However, COVID-19 has spread worldwide in a very short time. If the current trend continues, with about 100,000 new confirmed cases daily worldwide, there are concerns that the damage could rival that of the Spanish flu.
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