Former Blue House Spokesperson vs. Former Seoul Mayor... Gominjeong Slightly Leads Oh Sehun Within Margin of Error

Democratic Party candidate Ko Min-jung (left), former Blue House spokesperson, running in Gwangjin District, Seoul, and United Future Party candidate Oh Se-hoon, former mayor of Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-young Hwang] In Seoul Gwangjin-eul, where a political newcomer who served as the Blue House spokesperson faces off against a senior politician who was formerly the mayor of Seoul, candidate Go Min-jung of the Democratic Party of Korea is leading candidate Oh Se-hoon of the United Future Party within the margin of error, according to a survey.

A poll conducted by YTN through Realmeter from the 28th to 29th of last month surveyed 509 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Seoul’s Gwangjin-gu-eul electoral district. The results showed candidate Go at 47.1% and candidate Oh at 43.3%.

The gap between the two candidates is 3.8 percentage points, which is within the margin of error (±4.3%).

When asked, "Regardless of your support, who do you think has a slightly higher chance of winning in this general election?" candidate Go received 47.0%, and candidate Oh received 44.6%.

The survey was conducted via ARS telephone interviews combining 60% wireless virtual numbers and 40% random digit dialing (RDD) to landlines, with a response rate of 5.7%.

The sampling error is ±4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Another poll commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo to Ipsos from the 27th to 28th of last month surveyed 500 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Gwangjin-gu-eul, also showing candidate Go leading within the margin of error.

Candidate Go received 47.1%, and candidate Oh received 38.4%, with a gap of 8.7 percentage points, which is within the margin of error (±4.4%).

When asked, "Regardless of support, who do you think will win?" candidate Go (45.1%) was 9.9 percentage points higher than candidate Oh (35.2%).

The survey was conducted via telephone interviews combining 81.4% wireless virtual numbers and 18.6% random digit dialing (RDD) to landlines, with a response rate of 12.5%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

A survey conducted by MBN and Maeil Business Newspaper through R&Search from the 23rd to 25th of last month surveyed 522 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Gwangjin-gu-eul, showing a close race with candidate Go at 44.3% and candidate Oh at 43.9%.

When asked, "Regardless of support, who do you think has a higher chance of winning?" candidate Go received 48.6%, and candidate Oh received 42.0%.

The survey was conducted with 92.3% wireless ARS and 7.7% landline ARS, with a response rate of 5.4%.

The sampling error is ±4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Seoul Gwangjin-eul is the constituency where Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae served five terms and is considered a stronghold for the ruling party.

Minister Choo ran in six general elections here and won five times.

In the only election she lost, the 17th general election, she was defeated by Kim Hyung-joo of the Open Democratic Party, not a conservative party.

Candidate Oh, who served as mayor of Seoul, lost in Jongno in the 20th general election but has been building his support base in Gwangjin-eul early on, aiming for a comeback.

The Democratic Party strategically nominated candidate Go, who served as the Blue House spokesperson and is known as "President Moon’s voice," to run against candidate Oh in this district vacated by Minister Choo.

Both candidates have ties to Gwangjin-gu.

Candidate Go attended her elementary school (Jungma Elementary School) in Gwangjin-gu and also attended Guui Middle School in Gwangjin-gu for one year.

She promotes herself with the slogan "Gwangjin person Go Min-jung."

Candidate Oh also uses the slogan "Born and raised in Gwangjin. It’s already been 9 years since I moved to Gwangjin."