[Reading Science] When Will the COVID-19 Vaccine Be Developed?

In September of last year, an Ebola vaccine was developed for the first time in 42 years.
[Photo by U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Jong-hwa] The COVID-19 pandemic has put the global community on high alert. Will the development of a 'vaccine' help to alleviate the pandemic situation even slightly?

So far, there has been no news of a COVID-19 vaccine being developed. When can we expect a vaccine to be developed? The U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has projected that it will take at least 12 to 18 months to develop a vaccine. Is it really possible to develop a vaccine within about a year?

Vaccine development is not an easy task. Vaccines for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which spread in the early 2000s, and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), identified in 2013, have still not been developed. The Ebola virus, first discovered in 1976 near the Ebola River in northern Zaire, had its vaccine developed only last year.

It took a staggering 42 years to develop. Considering that the SARS vaccine, which is over 10 years old, is still unavailable, can we trust scientists' claims that a COVID-19 vaccine, which began spreading at the end of last year, can be developed in just over two years?

Developing a vaccine requires enormous costs, effort, and time. For influenza virus vaccines, the virus is cultured by injecting it into eggs. After growing the virus in eggs for about 48 hours, the virus is harvested and inactivated with chemicals to make the vaccine. This method has the disadvantage of taking a lot of time.

Vaccines made this way are called 'inactivated vaccines' or 'killed vaccines,' whereas vaccines made by simply weakening the virus are called 'live vaccines' or 'attenuated vaccines.' Since each virus has different characteristics, it is necessary to determine in advance whether a live vaccine or an inactivated vaccine is appropriate.

If the virus cannot be cultured in eggs, other cells such as those from animals or fungi must be used to culture the virus. Because directly injecting cultured viruses into test subjects is risky, a process of producing and injecting proteins that make up the virus is required. Moreover, since it is unknown which proteins will produce an effective vaccine, verifying this also takes a significant amount of time.

Safety verification for direct human injection is also very stringent. Strict sterile conditions must be maintained during production, and repeated clinical trials are necessary to prove that the vaccine consistently shows effectiveness.

Such clinical trials can take about 10 years, starting with mice or small animals and progressing to chimpanzees. Afterward, clinical trials on humans begin. This requires enormous costs and time. Therefore, most of these clinical trials are undertaken by large multinational pharmaceutical companies. If these companies refuse to participate, the vaccine development timeline could be indefinitely extended.

A view of Moderna's clinical development and manufacturing facility in Norwood, Massachusetts, USA. Moderna announced last month that it will send its newly developed COVID-19 vaccine to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) under the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) for Phase 1 clinical trials.
[Photo by EPA/ Yonhap News]

Scientists generally say it takes about 10 years to develop vaccines or antiviral drugs and apply them clinically. The costs involved during this period exceed trillions of won, making economic considerations inevitable. If multinational pharmaceutical giants judge that it is 'not economically viable,' there is no way to force them to proceed.

Another obstacle is that the approval process for market release varies by country. Even if a vaccine is developed, it may take additional time to be approved for sale depending on each country's circumstances. Furthermore, if unexpected side effects are discovered, various issues such as liability may arise, so the entire process from vaccine development to distribution inevitably takes considerable time.

Vaccines are often developed only after an epidemic has ended due to these circumstances. Recently, it was reported that a person in the U.S. received a clinical trial vaccine for the first time, indicating the urgency of the situation. Although regulations require prior animal testing, this step was skipped.

Is there no way to accelerate vaccine development? Could the approach used in the U.S., where clinical trial vaccines are administered directly to humans without animal testing in urgent cases, be a solution? There are concerns that this might undermine the rules humanity has built over a long time to protect life. Ultimately, will the power to overcome diseases come from scientists' efforts and investors' capital?