Election Winner's Secret Revelation? Exaggeration and Overacting as the 'Hidden Agenda' [Politics, That Day...]

20s General Election, Prospects for Ruling and Opposition Parties' Seat Securing at Candidate Registration... Saenuri Majority Seats, Undoubted General Election Prediction

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] ‘Politics, On That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

On the 16th, one month before the 21st National Assembly election, election commission officials are conducting a mock test of the ballot sorting machine at the Jongno District Election Commission in Seoul. Photo by Jin-Hyung Kang aymsdream@

"About 160 seats would be a success, and the last line of defense is a majority." This was the election forecast predicted by Kwon Seong-dong, head of strategy planning at Saenuri Party, at the time of completing candidate registration for the 20th general election in 2016. At that time, no one doubted the prediction that Saenuri Party would secure a majority of seats in the 20th general election.

This is why Kwon’s forecast cannot be seen as an ‘overestimate.’ In fact, there were rumors in Yeouido political circles that Saenuri Party would win 180 seats, but those responsible for Saenuri Party’s election strategy worked hard to downplay it. As with four years ago, at the time of completing candidate registration, who will be the winner of the 21st general election?

The general election is a battle of strategy versus strategy. It is not good to present an excessively high estimate of seats. Conversely, presenting a forecast lower than the actual expected seats also carries risks. Strategists of major parties sometimes mix exaggeration and overestimation when presenting election forecasts.

If the election outlook is bleak, they raise the forecast somewhat to prevent the defection of their support base. Conversely, if the outlook improves, they lower the forecast to induce tension among supporters. The exaggeration and overestimation surrounding election forecasts are intertwined with ‘hidden intentions.’

On the 13th, about a month before the 21st National Assembly election, a voting participation promotional poster installed by the Seoul Metropolitan Election Commission is displayed on the screen door at Chungmuro Station on Subway Line 3 in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

What about four years ago? Maintaining Saenuri Party as the first party and securing a majority of seats was a common analysis among both ruling and opposition strategists. At that time, Lee Cheol-hee, head of strategy planning at the Democratic Party, predicted that the Democratic Party could win about 110 to 130 seats. This was the expected number of seats around the time candidate registration was completed and official election campaigns began.

The forecast that Saenuri Party would win the 20th general election was not a vague prediction. In regular public opinion polls by one of the most authoritative polling institutions, Gallup Korea, Saenuri Party’s party support rate consistently overwhelmed that of the Democratic Party. Based on poll results alone, it would have been strange to predict that Saenuri Party would lose to the Democratic Party.

However, politics is a living organism. Even less than 20 days before the general election, election forecasts made by so-called Yeouido political experts can be wrong. Not just wrong, but they can be completely off to the point of embarrassment.

The 20th general election was such a case. The final score was Saenuri Party 122 seats, Democratic Party 123 seats. The victory was decided by a single seat difference, but the shockwave for Saenuri Party was beyond imagination. The polls were not bad, and the election structure called ‘Honam division’ further favored Saenuri Party.

What remained a question mark regarding the predictions of political experts at that time was the metropolitan area. For Saenuri Party to achieve a stable victory, it had to perform well in the metropolitan area, including Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon. The meaning of ‘perform well’ may be abstract, but it meant winning more seats than the Democratic Party or at least achieving similar results. Then, based on seats in the Yeongnam region, a majority could be secured.

About two months ahead of the 21st National Assembly election, on the 20th, officials from the Seoul Metropolitan Election Commission are posting streetlight banners encouraging voter participation near Gate 1 of the National Assembly building in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

However, political experts predicted that forecasting the metropolitan area would not be easy. Everyone generally expected Saenuri Party to be dominant overall, but if the metropolitan area turned away, the results could change. Would Saenuri Party receive an unfavorable score in the metropolitan area election of the 20th general election, which was fought under the ‘one ruling party, many opposition parties’ structure?

At that time, Saenuri Party committed an act considered an ‘absolute taboo’ in general elections. In a situation where ‘being cautious’ was not enough, they exposed an ‘unpleasant picture’ of factional conflicts over candidate nominations. This is a scene commonly seen in a party that is doing well.

If candidates assume they will win just by receiving nominations, factional conflicts can explode within the party. Voters dislike such appearances. It can be seen as politicians counting their chickens before they hatch, even though the people have not made their choice.

If the mood of voters is provoked and the spark of ‘punishment voting’ is rekindled, the election scene can be overturned in an instant. Especially in the metropolitan area, where winners can change by just a few hundred votes, candidates must treat voters with ‘humility and more humility’ until the election is over. Complacency due to a favorable election environment can lead to a devastating result after the ballot boxes are opened.

The reason Saenuri Party tasted a bitter defeat despite the favorable election structure was largely due to the metropolitan area election defeat. In the 20th general election, Saenuri Party won only 12 out of 49 seats in Seoul. The Democratic Party swept 35 seats.

In Gyeonggi Province, Saenuri Party won 19 out of 60 seats, while the Democratic Party took 40 seats. In Incheon, Saenuri Party secured only 4 out of 13 seats. The Democratic Party secured 7 seats. Out of 122 constituencies in the metropolitan area, Saenuri Party won 35, and the Democratic Party took 82 seats.

Before the 20th general election, there was even a prediction that Saenuri Party might secure 180 seats, but combined with the metropolitan area defeat, they were pushed down to the second-largest party in the National Assembly.