[Takryucheongron] Moon Jae-in Government's North Korea Policy, It Is Still Too Early to Evaluate

North Korea policy requires a virtuous cycle among three wheels: inter-Korean relations, North Korea?U.S. relations, and South Korea?U.S. relations, for a higher chance of success. If any one of these wheels does not turn smoothly, progress cannot be made. This success formula has applied not only to the current Moon Jae-in administration but also to all previous governments' North Korea policies.

No matter how well cooperation between the two Koreas is maintained, success cannot be guaranteed without support from South Korea?U.S. relations or North Korea?U.S. relations. Likewise, North Korea policy cannot be successfully led by South Korea?U.S. relations alone or North Korea?U.S. relations alone. The Moon Jae-in administration, learning from the trial and error of past governments, tried to firmly establish North Korea policy on a solid foundation through the virtuous cycle of this tripartite relationship. In 2018, the leaders of South and North Korea met three times for summits, through which they agreed and implemented the so-called Korean Peninsula Peace Process, significantly advancing inter-Korean relations, complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the establishment of lasting peace. Through the inter-Korean summits, conditions were created for North Korea?U.S. summits, promoting a virtuous cycle of inter-Korean relations development, denuclearization, and improvement of North Korea?U.S. relations, opening a window of opportunity for the practical dismantling of the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula.

Previously, North Korea sought to discuss peace issues only with the United States. However, due to President Moon’s consistent message toward North Korea, the core issue of peace?the nuclear issue?was included in the agenda for inter-Korean consultations. South and North Korea broke with past conventions and discussed denuclearization together. In 2017, when the so-called "August war crisis on the Korean Peninsula" escalated, President Moon declared in his Liberation Day speech that he would "stake everything to prevent war," addressing the United States. He also persistently urged North Korea to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics to make it a peace Olympics and postponed the schedule of the South Korea?U.S. joint military exercises to facilitate this.

Following the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration demonstrated the possibility of "completely eliminating the fear of war on the Korean Peninsula" and "significant progress toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." The Pyongyang Joint Declaration, consisting of six points including ▲eliminating war risks such as in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), ▲balanced development of the national economy, ▲fundamental resolution of separated families issues, ▲cooperation and exchanges in various fields, ▲denuclearization and establishment of a peace foundation on the Korean Peninsula, and ▲North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un’s visit to Seoul, created a level of inter-Korean relations never experienced before.

At that time, Minister of National Defense Song Young-moo and Minister of People's Armed Forces No Kwang-chol signed the "Military Agreement for the Implementation of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration" as an annex to the "September Pyongyang Joint Declaration," which could be regarded as a "de facto non-aggression pact." Based on this military agreement, South and North Korea achieved remarkable progress such as ▲cessation of hostile acts on land, sea, and air, ▲completion of joint surveys in the Han River estuary, and ▲demining and dismantling of guard posts (GPs) in the DMZ to demilitarize the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom. The groundbreaking ceremony for the connection and modernization of the Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line railroads and roads between South and North Korea was held on December 26, 2018, at Panmun Station in Kaesong. Although these agreements have not been implemented due to the deadlock in North Korea?U.S. relations, it is undeniable that they represent a significant achievement in the 70-year history of division between the two Koreas.

The Moon Jae-in administration has made various mediation efforts to promote the implementation of the Singapore denuclearization agreement between North Korea and the United States, and such attempts will continue. It has become clear that the key link to resolving the Korean Peninsula issue is North Korea?U.S. relations. Driving sanctions relief on North Korea is a core task to promote the implementation of agreements between the two Koreas’ leaders. The Moon administration’s North Korea policy, namely the Korean Peninsula Peace Process, has not yet reached its conclusion. In this context, a comprehensive and final evaluation of the Moon administration’s North Korea policy seems premature. The two Koreas’ leaders have continued exchanging letters recently, and the United States has not abandoned dialogue and negotiation.

Im Eul-chul, Professor at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University