[Yang Nakgyu's Defense Club] Reciprocal Measures Toward Japan... What About GSOMIA?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] As the South Korean government takes reciprocal measures against Japan's entry restrictions, voices are emerging suggesting that the termination of the Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) might also be under consideration.

Cho Se-young, First Vice Foreign Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, announced the reciprocal measures against Japan during an emergency briefing on the afternoon of the 6th. Vice Minister Cho stated, "Our government once again expresses deep regret over Japan's unilateral announcement of this measure without prior consultation or notification," and pointed out, "It is difficult to accept Japan's unilateral strengthening of entry restrictions on our citizens, especially given Japan's opaque and passive quarantine efforts."

Vice Minister Cho also emphasized that while South Korea is recognized internationally for its transparent, democratic, and efficient quarantine system that strictly controls and manages infectious diseases, Japan is facing numerous questions regarding its vulnerable quarantine conditions and response.

If the South Korean government continues to take reciprocal measures in response to Japan's entry-related actions, military diplomacy between Korea and Japan is bound to deteriorate. There are also concerns that the termination of the Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) might be considered. Should GSOMIA be terminated, friction with the United States over defense cost-sharing could arise, as the U.S. desires an extension of GSOMIA.

The discussion about terminating GSOMIA stems from anti-Japanese sentiment among South Korean citizens. According to a public opinion poll conducted by Realmeter on the 17th of last month at the request of CBS, regarding the claim that GSOMIA should be terminated due to Japan's unchanged attitude, 44.9% of respondents answered "We have waited enough, so it should now be terminated," which is overwhelmingly higher than the 37.9% opposing opinion.

If anti-Japanese sentiment worsens and GSOMIA termination is decided, it will inevitably hinder the defense cost-sharing negotiations between South Korea and the United States. The South Korean and U.S. defense ministers met in Washington D.C. on the 24th of last month (local time) to discuss this issue but reportedly failed to narrow their differences. U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, at a press conference after the meeting, reaffirmed the commitment to continue trilateral defense cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, including high-level policy consultations, training, and information sharing, effectively expressing the position that GSOMIA should be extended. Although South Korea and the U.S. officially maintain that defense cost-sharing and GSOMIA extension are separate issues, the U.S. is pressuring for GSOMIA extension by linking it to defense cost-sharing, implying that the two matters may be connected. If GSOMIA is terminated, it is predicted that U.S. pressure to increase defense cost-sharing will intensify.

Some suggest that the Korea-Japan relationship could reach a turning point with the Tokyo Olympics scheduled for July.

President Moon stated at a press conference last month, "Just as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attended the opening ceremony of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, a high-level South Korean representative is expected to attend the Tokyo Olympics," and added, "I hope the Tokyo Olympics will serve as an opportunity to fundamentally resolve Korea-Japan issues." If discussions between Korea and Japan regarding the termination of GSOMIA are prolonged until July due to the COVID-19 situation, the high-level dialogue between Korea and Japan that will take place during the attendance of a high-level government representative at the Tokyo Olympics could become an important opportunity to resolve the issue.

The South Korean government holds the GSOMIA card as an important negotiation tool. Considering Japan's position, which is less capable of collecting military intelligence on North Korea due to geographical factors compared to South Korea, GSOMIA could be a crucial card to pressure Japan for the complete lifting of export restrictions against South Korea. Therefore, whether GSOMIA will be terminated is expected to be decided based on how diplomatic schedules and bilateral relations between the two countries unfold in the future.