[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] A report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revealed that the global economic loss caused by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) could reach up to $347 billion (approximately 413 trillion KRW). It is forecasted that if the COVID-19 crisis continues for more than six months, the global economy, centered on China, could face a severe shock.
On the 6th, ADB released a report stating that due to the sharp decline in global demand and tourism, disruption of industrial supply chains, and deterioration of health caused by the COVID-19 crisis, the worldwide losses could range from at least $77 billion to as much as $347 billion. Based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it is expected that the global GDP growth rate could decrease by a minimum of 0.1 percentage points and up to 0.4 percentage points.
ADB set the end of January as the starting point of the outbreak and noted that if the COVID-19 situation is contained and related restrictions are lifted by the end of this month, two months later, the damage would be minimal. However, if the COVID-19 crisis persists for more than six months, the worst-case scenario could occur. In particular, China, where the outbreak has been concentrated, is expected to bear two-thirds of the global economic losses. China is projected to suffer losses ranging from at least $44 billion to as much as $237 billion.
Yasuyuki Sawada, ADB’s Chief Economist, stated, "There are still many uncertainties, including the economic impact of COVID-19," and emphasized, "We hope this analysis will help governments worldwide prepare decisive responses to mitigate the economic effects caused by COVID-19."
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