[Reporter’s Reading] China’s Sword Stabs China

[Asia Economy Reporter Byunghee Park] Can China really surpass the United States and become the hegemon of the 21st century?

Masafumi Jinno, author of World History Seen Through Purges, firmly asserts that this will never happen. Instead, he argues that China is heading toward destruction. He finds the basis for predicting China's downfall in the 13th National People's Congress held in March 2018. Chinese President Xi Jinping abolished the presidential term limit, which had been a maximum of 10 years. At first glance, this seems unrelated. The author explains as follows.

"When a country begins to decline, its people support dictators or demagogues. Dictators divert the people's attention elsewhere to suppress their dissatisfaction. Historically, war was a frequently used means. But war inevitably means destruction."

Meanwhile, the author points out that even in the 20th-century hegemon, the United States, a typical demagogue, Donald Trump, emerged. This means the U.S. is also heading toward destruction. According to his logic, the possibility of a war between the U.S. and China to divert public attention? in other words, World War III?can be glimpsed. However, the author does not mention the possibility of war at all.

The author seems to focus on China's destruction. While many expect China to become the hegemon in the 21st century after the hegemonies of 19th-century Britain and 20th-century America, he insists this will never be the case. In his writing, he mercilessly criticizes the Chinese people's national character. His idea of national character is as follows: "'National character' is an unchanging, immortal, and immutable existence that does not change no matter how much time passes or natural disasters occur."

So, what is the unchanging national character of the Chinese people according to the author? "It is no exaggeration to say that China's history is a 'history of purges.' For the Chinese, 'purges' are as natural as air, so there is no guilt associated with purges."

The author even disparages Confucius, whom the Chinese regard as a sage, saying that after becoming the Grand Master of the State of Lu, the first thing Confucius did was a purge.

"In China, only 'power is justice.' If even for a moment one is swept away by 'loyalty,' 'humanity,' or 'compassion,' it is a brutal world where one is annihilated in that gap. It does not matter whether the other party is a trusted minister, a close friend, or a childhood companion. Even parents and siblings are no exception. (Omitted) No matter how much one explains that 'the Chinese live in a different world,' ordinary people hardly understand."

The Song Dynasty is considered the weakest dynasty militarily in Chinese history. The author explains this by saying that Emperor Taizu of Song, Zhao Kuangyin, was one of the rare rulers in Chinese history who did not carry out purges.

In Chapter 1, the author focuses on purges and examines Chinese history up to the Chinese Civil War. Chapter 2 looks at the history of purges in Europe but feels somewhat secondary or inserted. This is because Chapter 3 returns to China. World History Seen Through Purges consists of a prologue and five chapters, including Chapters 1 to 4. Chapter 4 serves as a conclusion. Therefore, the parts that actually examine history are Chapters 1 to 3, three chapters in total.

The author examines Chinese history in Chapter 1, European purges in Chapter 2, and returns to China in Chapter 3. The title of Chapter 3 is "The Birth of the Purge Monster." The purge monster refers to Mao Zedong. The author criticizes Mao as a foolish man and argues that China cannot escape Mao's shadow and is therefore inevitably limited.

A typical example demonstrating Mao Zedong's foolishness is the increase in steel production during the Great Leap Forward. When China entered its second Five-Year Plan, Mao boasted that China would surpass the British economy in 15 years. At that time, the steel industry supported the economy. In 1957, China's steel production was 5.35 million tons, while Britain, the world's second-largest steel producer at the time, produced 22.3 million tons.

Mao thought that because China's population was overwhelmingly larger than Britain's, if all Chinese people produced steel, Britain could be caught up with quickly. Eventually, Mao said 15 years was unnecessary and ordered to catch up with Britain within 2 to 3 years. To achieve this absurd goal, anything made of iron across China was thrown into blast furnaces. As a result, the goal was met, but it was just useless scrap metal.

According to the author, Mao killed 70 million of his own people during his lifetime. On October 1, 1949, the founding of the People's Republic of China was declared at Tiananmen. Until then, Mao had executed and imprisoned numerous political opponents to seize supreme power. Even after taking power, countless Chinese were driven to death through the Hundred Flowers Campaign, the Hundred Schools of Thought Contention, and the Cultural Revolution.

Focusing on Mao Zedong, the author briefly introduces modern Chinese history afterward. Following Mao, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin imitated their predecessors' methods. Hu Jintao, whom Jiang groomed as his successor, unexpectedly rebelled against Jiang after taking power. He purged the Shanghai faction, Jiang's support base. Amid the conflict between the two, Xi Jinping seized power as a beneficiary.

People often say, "History is written by the victors." Purges may be the most sophisticated tool for viewing history. In that sense, World History Seen Through Purges is intriguing.

Although it carries the title "World History," it strongly feels biased toward the history of purges in China. The question remains: what does the author truly want to say while arguing that China will not achieve hegemony?

"For 70 years after the war, the Japanese learned that 'Japan, the evil aggressor, was struck down by the righteous hammer of the United States.' But when you think about who the winner and loser are, the 'truth' becomes clear. According to the laws of history, after a war ends, the victor spreads slander to disparage the loser, and it inevitably becomes widespread."

(Written by Masafumi Jinno / Translated by Seonsook Kim / Seongandang / 15,000 KRW)