This Year's Global Economic Growth Forecast Revised Downward... "Impact of COVID-19"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Bloomberg News has reported that the growth rate forecasts for this year from 36 global investment banks and economic research institutes have all been revised downward compared to previous projections. As the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) rapidly spreads to countries outside China such as Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy, major institutions have been successively lowering their growth rate forecasts for the global economy based on regional gross domestic product (GDP).

On the 24th (local time), Bloomberg News compiled the growth rate forecasts for this year from 36 global investment banks and economic research institutes, finding an average of 2.9%, which is 0.2 percentage points (p) lower than last month's forecast of 3.1%. This is the lowest level since Bloomberg began surveying global economic growth rate forecasts in February 2018.

By institution, the Swiss investment bank UBS lowered its growth rate forecast by 0.2%p from the previous month to 2.9%. Goldman Sachs revised its forecast down from 3.4% to 3.2%, Berenberg from 2.3% to 2.1%. BMO Capital lowered its forecast from 2.8% to 2.6%, ING Group from 3.1% to 2.9%, and Moody's also reduced its forecast from 3.1% to 2.9%, generally lowering projections by about 0.2%p.

Commerzbank lowered its forecast from 3.1% to 3.0%, Barclays from 3.3% to 3.2%, and JPMorgan Chase from 2.5% to 2.4%, all revising downward despite varying degrees of reduction. Among the 36 surveyed institutions, 18 predicted that the global economic growth rate this year would not even reach 3%. The French investment bank Natixis had the largest downward revision, lowering its forecast by 1.0%p from 3.1% last month to 2.1%.