[COVID-19 One Month] Sudden Surge of Novel Flu After One Month, MERS Peaked One Month Ago

In 2009, H1N1 Flu Cases Reached 39 One Month After Outbreak... Then Rapid Increase
760,000 Patients and 270 Deaths Over 484 Days

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) isolated from a U.S. patient by the U.S. National Institutes of Health <이미지:연합뉴스.AP>

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] The novel influenza A/H1N1 2009 (H1N1 flu), which began in the North American continent in April 2009, landed in South Korea in late April of the same year. The first patient was a woman in her 50s who had returned from volunteer work in Mexico. She was quarantined on April 28, the day after her return, and confirmed positive on May 2. Among those who had contact with her, two people were later confirmed as patients at different times. From April 16 to 27, a language institute reported a cluster of 22 patients, triggered by a 20-year-old American language instructor.

The number of H1N1 flu patients increased to 39 by early June, one month after the first case. The overall trend of patient occurrence was slow initially. Then, another month later in early July, the number exceeded 300, and by August it reached 1,400. Following the first domestic case, the government raised the infectious disease alert level to "caution," then to "alert" in July, and finally to "serious" in November. The "serious" alert level was the first and, to date, the last time it has been raised.

The first death occurred on August 15, about 100 days after the first confirmed infectious disease patient in the country. New patient numbers began to decline in December, and the last domestic case was a patient infected overseas who entered the country in August of the following year. The total period from the first to the last patient was 484 days. During this period, the total number of patients, including suspected cases, reached 763,759, and deaths totaled 270.

On the 7th, as the spread of the novel coronavirus infection continues, a visitor to the National Medical Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, is being guided by medical staff into the screening clinic. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

2015 MERS Peaks at 165 Cases in One Month
186 Confirmed Cases and 38 Deaths Over 218 Days

The first Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) patient was confirmed on May 20, 2015. On the same day, the patient's wife was confirmed as the second case. The reproduction number (average number of people directly infected by one patient) for MERS is less than 1.0, but the first patient infected many others because he visited multiple hospitals, clinics, and emergency rooms for over two weeks after entering the country.

Hospitals have many immunocompromised individuals, and during treatment, medical staff and other patients are at high risk of exposure to infectious diseases. Therefore, healthcare-associated infections are a major concern for health authorities. By late May, about ten days later, the number of patients increased to 15, and the first death occurred in June. About three weeks after the first patient was confirmed, on June 9, the number of patients exceeded 100, and about a month later, on June 18, it rose to 165. From the first case until the government declared the end of the outbreak in late December, a total of 186 confirmed cases and 38 deaths occurred over 218 days.

It is difficult to predict how the current novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) will progress over the next month. However, experts commonly agree that there is a sufficient possibility of community spread, as the number of patients with unknown infection routes is increasing, as recently confirmed. There are already significant numbers of arrivals from China, where widespread regional infections are occurring, and because symptoms are mild, patients themselves may not recognize their infection and could easily transmit it to others around them.