China's Top Respiratory Disease Expert: "COVID-19 Peaks This Month"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Hyun-woo] Zhong Nanshan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering known as the top authority on respiratory diseases in China, predicted that the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) will peak in mid to late February. After the peak, the number of confirmed cases is expected to continuously decrease as the effects of the Chinese government's lockdown measures take hold.

According to local Chinese media on the 18th, Zhong, who also serves as the head of the senior expert team of the National Health Commission of China, stated, "In the southern regions of China, the peak will be reached around mid-February or slightly after mid to late February," adding, "However, even after reaching the peak, the numbers will not immediately drop." He also noted that, except for Hubei Province, which has been the most severely affected by COVID-19, the number of new confirmed cases in other regions of China continues to decline, highlighting the effectiveness of the Chinese government's strong measures.

Zhong analyzed, "According to existing predictive models, the number of COVID-19 patients should have reached 170,000 by February, but currently, the total confirmed cases across China are about 70,000, showing a significant difference from the model," attributing this to the intervention effect of the government's strong control measures such as lockdowns. He further pointed out, "Transmission between people is still not being prevented in Wuhan," emphasizing, "Separating healthy individuals from patients is necessary to achieve a positive effect across China."

He added that the lower mortality rate of COVID-19 in regions other than Hubei Province is due to the relatively smaller number of patients, stating, "In Wuhan, the number of patients suddenly increased early on due to mutual infections, causing delays in treatment timing, and patients were transferred to intensive care units only after their conditions worsened, resulting in a higher mortality rate."