[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Today is Kim Jong-il's Birthday 'Kwangmyongsong Day'... Will the North Provocate?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] Attention is focused on whether North Korea will quietly pass the birthday of Kim Jong-il, Chairman of the National Defense Commission, on the 16th. North Korea has previously provoked incidents on the occasion of Kim Jong-il's birthday, known as the Kwangmyongsong Festival, so the possibility of provocations cannot be ruled out. However, there are also views that the day may be observed quietly due to the spread of COVID-19.

Since coming to power in 2012, Chairman Kim has paid respects every year without fail at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where the bodies of his grandfather President Kim Il-sung and father Chairman Kim Jong-il are enshrined. North Korean media have also reported on the visits either on the day or the following day.

North Korea has carried out four military provocations around the Kwangmyongsong Festival, Kim Jong-il’s birthday. These include the third nuclear test on February 12, 2013, short-range ballistic missile launches (February 27, 2014), the long-range missile "Kwangmyongsong-4" (February 7, 2016), and the medium-range ballistic missile "Pukguksong-2" (February 12, 2017). These major provocations were conducted around the time of the Kwangmyongsong Festival.

However, with the recent COVID-19 outbreak showing no signs of subsiding, it is uncertain whether Chairman Kim will visit the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun this time as well. Considering that North Korean media usually report on Chairman Kim’s public activities the day after they occur, it appears that he has not engaged in any external activities such as on-site inspections or meetings up to the 12th.

Some also speculate that since this year is not a milestone anniversary (multiples of 5 or 10 years) of Kim Jong-il’s birthday, even if general events are held, Chairman Kim may not attend.

In 2017, North Korea attracted attention by displaying ice sculptures representing its nuclear weapons and missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), at an ice festival held to commemorate the Kwangmyongsong Festival. According to the Korean Central News Agency at the time, the exhibition titled "Baekdu Revolutionary Strong Army" included a sculpture presumed to be a "spherical nuclear warhead model" that fits the warhead of the ICBM-class KN-08, which North Korean media had revealed in March of the previous year. Although the shape of the ice sculpture was not confirmed, the black letters "hydrogen bomb" were also visible.

Additionally, an ice sculpture depicting a missile presumed to be the KN-08 mounted on a transporter erector launcher (TEL) was displayed side by side. At the top of the exhibition stand, three ice sculptures modeled after a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the Musudan (known in North Korea as Hwasong-10), and the long-range rocket Kwangmyongsong were erected, along with a model showing two launched missiles in flight.

Recently, there have been no reports of public activities by Chairman Kim Jong-un for over 20 days. His most recent activity was reported by the Korean Central News Agency on the following day after he attended a Lunar New Year commemorative performance at the Samjiyon Theater on the 25th of last month, accompanied by his wife Ri Sol-ju, his sister Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Party, and his aunt Kim Kyong-hui, former secretary of the Workers' Party.

The continuation of Chairman Kim’s "low profile" is believed to be influenced by the global spread of COVID-19 originating from China. With poor healthcare infrastructure, North Korea established a Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Command in late January and has been making every effort to prevent the spread by suspending transportation routes entering Pyongyang from abroad as confirmed cases and deaths surged in China. Because of this, Chairman Kim is likely focusing on domestic affairs while monitoring the overall COVID-19 response and refraining from public activities that would require contact with many officials or citizens.