New Coronavirus Infects Even Through Contact with Asymptomatic Carriers... Shaken Quarantine System

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The novel coronavirus, which originated in China, is rapidly spreading both inside and outside the country, causing global health authorities to be on high alert. The first confirmed case of human-to-human transmission was identified when a bus driver in Japan, who had transported Chinese tourists, was infected. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also emphasized the possibility of transmission from asymptomatic carriers during the incubation period, raising concerns that the foundation of quarantine systems could be shaken.

It is noteworthy that WHO has changed its stance by mentioning the possibility of transmission from asymptomatic infected individuals. WHO had previously considered the likelihood of such transmission to be low, responding to recent disclosures by Yuan Guoyong, a leading infectious disease expert at the University of Hong Kong’s Department of Microbiology. On the 10th, Professor Yuan revealed that while treating a family of seven hospitalized at the University of Hong Kong Shenzhen Hospital, a 10-year-old boy showed no outward symptoms but exhibited pneumonia signs in his lungs and was confirmed positive. In a report released on the 27th (local time), WHO stated, "It is not yet certain whether the virus can be transmitted during the incubation period," maintaining a cautious position.

However, as cases of infection through contact with asymptomatic individuals have increased, WHO has come to acknowledge the possibility. In Japan, a Japanese bus driver with no history of travel to China was infected with the novel coronavirus, and in Germany, infections through contact with asymptomatic carriers have been confirmed. According to local media such as Der Spiegel on the same day, a male employee of Webasto, an automotive equipment company in Stokdorf, Bavaria, southern Germany, was confirmed to have Wuhan pneumonia the previous night.

Previously, during outbreaks of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), there were no reported cases of transmission from individuals in the incubation period. If the possibility of transmission from asymptomatic carriers is confirmed, it will be necessary to screen all confirmed cases without symptoms, making quarantine efforts more difficult than before.

The hypothesis that asymptomatic infected individuals can transmit the virus is fueling greater fear. Experts inside and outside China claim that the novel coronavirus is much more contagious than SARS and that the actual number of patients is far higher than the figures announced by Chinese authorities. Professor Yuan warned, "Wuhan pneumonia has already entered the third stage of epidemic spread, where it transmits to patients’ families and medical staff, and is approaching the fourth stage of large-scale community outbreaks, similar to SARS."

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), Professor Gabriel Leung of the University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control stated on the 28th, "The number of infected people in Wuhan alone has likely exceeded 40,000," and predicted, "By late April or early May, at the peak, there could be as many as 150,000 new infections per day." CNN cited Professor Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University in the United States, who said, "The actual number of infected individuals is likely over 25,000," and forecasted that "this is not an issue that will be resolved next week or next month," indicating a much larger spread is expected.