Chinese Authorities "2,000 Wuhan Pneumonia Cases" vs UK Experts "Over 100,000"

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London

On the afternoon of the 27th, when the fourth domestic confirmed case of the novel coronavirus infection, known as 'Wuhan pneumonia,' was reported, foreign tourists wearing masks were walking along the streets of Myeongdong, Jung-gu.

A British health expert has claimed that the number of infections of the novel coronavirus, known as 'Wuhan pneumonia,' has already exceeded 100,000. This is a stark contrast to the approximately 2,000 cases reported by Chinese authorities.

According to the British daily The Guardian on the 26th (local time), Neil Ferguson, a public health expert and professor at Imperial College London, stated, "As far as I know, the number of infected people currently reaches 100,000," and that the actual number of infections is likely to far exceed the roughly 2,000 cases reported by Chinese health authorities.

While leaving room for his estimate that the number of infected could be "between 30,000 and 200,000," he emphasized, "It is certain that a large number of people have been infected."

Although no confirmed cases have yet been reported in the UK, Professor Ferguson predicted, "We will soon have cases as well."

He argued, "There are currently many Chinese tourists throughout Europe," and "Unless China controls this, we will also have cases."

Professor Ferguson expressed concern that, unlike SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Wuhan pneumonia infected individuals may show no symptoms, making it possible for them to evade detection.

This is because asymptomatic carriers with mild symptoms may unknowingly spread the infection to those around them. In China, there have been reports of cases where the virus was transmitted to others before symptoms appeared.

Wendy Barclay, a professor of epidemiology at Imperial College London, said, "It would not be surprising if the novel coronavirus operates just like the flu or a cold," adding, "If proven true, preventing its spread will be a greater challenge, and methods like airport screenings will not be able to stop the virus."

Gabriel Leung, who leads the Centre for Epidemiology and Disease Control at the University of Hong Kong, estimated that the number of novel coronavirus infections has already approached 25,000, with about 44,000 people in the incubation period.

Professor Leung forecasted, "Without public health measures, the number of infected will double every six days," and warned, "There is a high possibility of a major outbreak in Chongqing, China, which has a population exceeding 30 million and is adjacent to Wuhan."

He added, "Two weeks after the peak of the epidemic in Chongqing, rapid spread is likely in Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities," and stated, "The novel coronavirus is expected to peak in April and May and weaken in June and July."

Meanwhile, the National Health Commission of China announced that as of 12 noon that day, 2,806 confirmed cases of Wuhan pneumonia had been reported across 30 provinces nationwide, with 81 deaths.