President Moon's 'General Election Gift'? Focus on Ruling Party's Report Card

Currently 129 seats, is a single majority possible in the 21st National Assembly... Due to the revised election law, the situation is not easy, increasing the importance of 'cooperation'

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] For President Moon Jae-in, the 21st general election on April 15 is a turning point that will determine the momentum of state affairs. In the 20th National Assembly, many major state tasks were stalled due to the 'wall of the National Assembly.' If the seat distribution between the ruling and opposition parties changes, it will be possible to secure the momentum to push forward major state tasks.

According to the National Assembly on the 24th, the Democratic Party of Korea has 129 members out of a total of 295. Considering the independent Speaker of the National Assembly Moon Hee-sang and lawmaker Son Hye-won, the number of lawmakers with Democratic Party tendencies actually reaches 131. If the Democratic Party succeeds in securing an outright majority in the 21st general election, it will achieve a majority in various standing committee votes, creating favorable conditions for the passage of major bills.

The problem is that the revised election law is likely to act as an obstacle to the ruling party's seat expansion. Of the 47 proportional representation seats, 30 seats subject to the semi-proportional representation system are expected to be virtually a 'party for others.' Considering the Democratic Party's rate of securing constituency seats, it is unlikely to gain even a single one of these 30 seats.

It is expected to take some of the remaining 17 seats, but the outlook is not bright. Some opinion polls show about 40% party support, but the actual proportional representation party vote rate may be lower than this. For example, there may be strategic party voting behavior that boosts other parties such as the Justice Party.

For the Democratic Party to succeed in an outright majority, it must secure more than 140 seats out of 253 constituencies, which is not easy. It requires dominating most of the metropolitan area and performing better than expected in the Yeongnam region. As a result, the Democratic Party may secure a number of seats not significantly different from its current seats.

President Moon's state governance depends on the 'result of cooperation.' Depending on whether the Democratic Party shows political skill in seeking cooperation from the opposition, the fate of the major state tasks pursued by the Moon Jae-in administration is expected to change.