[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Missile Attack Capability of North Korea Seen Through the "Ilan Incident"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] On the 8th (local time), Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Iraq by launching ballistic missiles at a low angle to evade air defense systems, drawing attention to missiles launched by North Korea as well. Last year, North Korea also launched ballistic missiles at low angles, suggesting an analysis that it is seeking blind spots to evade the Korean Air and Missile Defense system (KAMD).

According to government officials on the 11th, Iran's missiles share many similarities with those of North Korea. The missiles launched by Iran are likely short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) such as the Qiam-1 (liquid-fueled, range 800 km) and Fateh-110 (solid-fueled, range 400 km). These missiles are closely related to North Korea. Military experts say the Qiam-1 is a domestically produced model imported from North Korea’s Scud-C missiles, and the Fateh-110 is believed to be a missile exported to North Korea.

The launch methods are also similar to North Korea’s. Attention is focused on the fact that Iran launched ballistic missiles at a lower angle than the normal trajectory. North Korea launched ballistic missiles at low angles four times in May last year alone. On May 4, one missile was launched at an altitude of about 60 km (range about 240 km); on May 9, two missiles at altitudes of 45-50 km (range 270-420 km); on May 25, two missiles at about 50 km altitude (range 600 km); and six days later, on May 31, two missiles were launched at 30 km altitude. All these missiles are North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles, comparable to the Iskander class.

Professor Jang Young-geun of the Department of Aerospace Mechanical Engineering at Korea Aerospace University said, "If North Korea lowers the peak altitude of ballistic missiles to below 50 km, it becomes difficult to intercept them even with Patriot interceptor missiles," adding, "North Korea will develop technologies to evade KAMD."

Experts argue that ballistic missiles flying at Mach 6-7 speed at an altitude of 30 km are difficult to intercept with ground-launched interceptor missiles. The speed of the PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) interceptor missile, which the military is planning to introduce, is Mach 4-5, making it hard to catch up. Moreover, flying at low altitude leaves insufficient time for interception, increasing the chance of missing the target. North Korea’s continued low-altitude launches indicate it is exploiting this weakness.

The military plans to import PAC-3 MSE guided interceptor missiles with an interception altitude of over 40 km from the U.S. between 2021 and 2023 to counter North Korean missiles. The PAC-3 MSE guided missile features improved rocket motors and missile control fins to increase hit probability. Its range is about twice that of the PAC-3 CRI (range about 20 km) currently operated by the military. The U.S. Forces Korea are reported to have already completed upgrading all existing Patriots to PAC-3 MSE. Additionally, a project is underway to upgrade the existing Patriot launch systems to fire the PAC-3 MSE missiles. This involves increasing the number of launch tubes from 4 to 16 and improving the detection performance of radars that track North Korean ballistic missiles.

However, experts have pointed out limitations in the South Korean military’s current defense system in intercepting new weapons such as short-range ballistic missiles tested by North Korea. While interception may be possible with medium-range surface-to-air missiles, the available time is too short, and their speed is slower than North Korean missiles, indicating limitations. Multiple launches of rocket artillery are also expected to burden the military’s interception capabilities.

North Korean missile bases are deployed in three belts. The military and defense research institutions currently refer to the missile deployment lines in North Korea as three belts for convenience. North Korea is known to have deployed medium- and short-range missiles and ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) at 13 bases across three belts (zones) from the front near the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) to the rear areas.

The 1st belt is located 50-90 km north of the DMZ, where Scud brigades are stationed. Their range is short, between 300-700 km, allowing them to target the entire South Korean territory. About 400 Scud missiles are currently deployed, with around 40 mobile launchers (TELs) estimated.

The 2nd belt is established 90-120 km north of the DMZ and is managed by the Nodong missile brigade. More than 300 Nodong missiles with a range of 1,200 km are deployed, capable of striking U.S. forces in Japan. The number of Nodong missile TELs is estimated to be around 30.

The 3rd belt is the rear area based on Cheolsan in North Pyongan Province, Geomdeok Mountain in South Hamgyong Province, and Junggang in Jagang Province. Located about 175 km north of the DMZ, it is estimated to house 30-50 Musudan missiles. These can be moved and launched by about 30 TELs, capable of striking bases in Guam. Furthermore, if ICBM-class KN-08 missiles are deployed in the 3rd belt, they could threaten not only Hawaii but also the U.S. mainland.